NBA games

DEN @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
136–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN25284142136
SA37323725131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home SA
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 40 39 2 7
Nikola Jokic S 39 31 20 12
Spencer Jones S 33 19 4 2
Cameron Johnson S 31 15 5 1
Christian Braun S 38 11 9 2
Julian Strawther 15 10 2 1
Bruce Brown 17 6 1 0
Jonas Valanciunas 5 4 2 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 19 1 2 1
Tyus Jones 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle S 35 30 11 10
De'Aaron Fox S 36 27 3 9
Harrison Barnes 27 20 7 1
Devin Vassell S 32 18 1 3
Dylan Harper 24 13 5 5
Carter Bryant 9 10 3 1
Julian Champagnie S 23 8 7 1
Keldon Johnson 22 5 7 3
Mason Plumlee 8 0 2 1
Luke Kornet S 25 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
19%
2 De'Aaron Fox SA
15%
3 Stephon Castle SA
15%
4 Devin Vassell SA
11%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
6 Cameron Johnson DEN
10%
7 Christian Braun DEN
10%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
9%
9 Spencer Jones DEN
0%
10 Jonas Valanciunas DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
63%
Jumper
16%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.4 12.5 9.4
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.7 4.3 5.0
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.0 3.6 6.7
4 Stephon Castle SA 17.4 4.6 6.8
5 Devin Vassell SA 15.4 4.3 3.0
6 Christian Braun DEN 13.9 6.0 3.0
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 13.3 3.0 1.7
8 Dylan Harper SA 12.8 3.3 4.8
9 Julian Champagnie SA 11.5 5.2 2.0
10 Cameron Johnson DEN 10.3 3.9 2.3
11 Keldon Johnson SA 9.7 3.6 1.1
12 Julian Strawther DEN 7.9 2.3 1.3
13 Bruce Brown DEN 7.6 3.4 2.0
14 Harrison Barnes SA 7.0 1.8 1.6
15 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 5.1 3.7 1.0
16 Carter Bryant SA 4.9 2.9 1.0
17 Luke Kornet SA 4.8 3.7 1.3
18 Spencer Jones DEN 4.8 3.6 0.8
19 Tyus Jones DEN 4.7 1.4 2.3
20 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.6 1.5 0.9
21 David Roddy DEN 3.4 1.7 0.7
22 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.2 1.2 1.0
23 Mason Plumlee SA 3.1 3.3 1.4
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.7 1.9 0.5
25 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.4 1.1 0.6
26 Lindy Waters III SA 2.3 0.7 0.6
27 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.