NBA games

MIL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
105–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL21302628105
MIA31282627112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home MIA
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 29 31 6 3
Bobby Portis 26 19 5 1
Ryan Rollins 33 16 5 10
Taurean Prince 15 8 1 0
Jericho Sims 22 7 4 2
Myles Turner S 22 7 4 2
Kevin Porter Jr. S 28 6 7 5
Kyle Kuzma S 20 5 3 1
AJ Green 15 3 0 2
Cam Thomas 16 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pelle Larsson S 38 28 6 6
Bam Adebayo S 35 21 8 2
Kasparas Jakucionis S 35 18 7 2
Davion Mitchell S 27 13 5 5
Dru Smith 21 9 4 2
Simone Fontecchio 15 8 2 1
Kel'el Ware S 28 6 13 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 32 6 4 7
Myron Gardner 9 3 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pelle Larsson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"Pelle Larsson makes driving layup (Davion Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
11%
3 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
10%
4 Ryan Rollins MIL
8%
5 Norman Powell MIA
7%
6 Jericho Sims MIL
7%
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL
7%
8 Pelle Larsson MIA
6%
9 Tyler Herro MIA
6%
10 Davion Mitchell MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
22%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 26.8 9.6 4.2
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 24.2 10.4 5.7
3 Tyler Herro MIA 23.7 4.6 5.6
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 18.7 4.9 6.5
5 Ryan Rollins MIL 16.5 5.4 5.9
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 16.5 4.8 5.0
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL 16.1 3.6 2.8
8 Norman Powell MIA 15.6 3.1 2.4
9 Pelle Larsson MIA 13.1 3.8 3.9
10 Bobby Portis MIL 12.8 4.8 1.5
11 Kel'el Ware MIA 12.3 10.0 1.3
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.3 3.5 5.2
13 Myles Turner MIL 10.0 4.2 1.3
14 Ousmane Dieng MIL 8.7 3.8 2.6
15 Cam Thomas MIL 8.1 1.8 2.1
16 AJ Green MIL 7.8 2.3 1.3
17 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 7.4 3.3 2.7
18 Simone Fontecchio MIA 7.2 2.5 1.3
19 Jericho Sims MIL 6.5 7.1 2.0
20 Taurean Prince MIL 6.0 2.3 1.0
21 Dru Smith MIA 5.8 2.7 2.2
22 Myron Gardner MIA 5.5 3.6 1.9
23 Pete Nance MIL 4.9 2.5 0.9
24 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.4 1.8 0.8
25 Trevor Keels MIA 4.0 1.4 1.0
26 Nikola Jovic MIA 3.9 1.8 0.7
27 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 3.2 1.1 0.5
28 Vladislav Goldin MIA 2.9 1.9 0.7
29 Gary Harris MIL 2.0 0.9 0.8
30 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.9 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.