NBA games

BKN @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
97–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN2129291897
ATL30272526108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home ATL
8% 92%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Minott 24 24 3 1
Drake Powell S 32 11 1 3
Noah Clowney S 20 10 6 1
Ben Saraf S 31 10 1 4
Terance Mann 16 8 2 1
Nic Claxton S 21 8 4 2
Danny Wolf S 28 8 8 2
Tyson Etienne 18 6 3 2
Jalen Wilson 17 5 2 0
E.J. Liddell 13 4 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 36 21 9 9
Zaccharie Risacher 31 19 9 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 36 18 2 2
CJ McCollum S 30 14 4 2
Onyeka Okongwu S 30 13 9 0
Corey Kispert S 20 7 3 4
Gabe Vincent 19 6 3 2
Mouhamed Gueye 5 4 1 0
Jock Landale 13 4 2 0
Jonathan Kuminga 19 2 9 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ben Saraf · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Ben Saraf makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
16%
2 CJ McCollum ATL
15%
3 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
14%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
14%
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
12%
6 Noah Clowney BKN
9%
7 Drake Powell BKN
9%
8 Terance Mann BKN
9%
9 Keaton Wallace ATL
0%
10 RayJ Dennis ATL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
24%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 21.7 3.8 5.1
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 21.0 7.5 5.9
3 CJ McCollum ATL 20.1 4.4 5.4
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 17.1 7.7 3.2
5 Nic Claxton BKN 12.5 6.5 3.7
6 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 12.0 4.8 2.4
7 Noah Clowney BKN 11.9 3.7 1.7
8 Danny Wolf BKN 10.8 4.7 2.7
9 Corey Kispert ATL 8.9 2.7 1.7
10 Jock Landale ATL 8.1 3.7 1.5
11 Buddy Hield ATL 7.9 2.2 1.6
12 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 7.9 4.6 1.4
13 Terance Mann BKN 6.9 2.6 1.7
14 Ben Saraf BKN 6.5 1.8 3.4
15 Drake Powell BKN 6.3 2.3 1.2
16 Ochai Agbaji BKN 5.8 1.9 1.0
17 Gabe Vincent ATL 5.1 1.4 1.5
18 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.6 1.8 0.7
19 Chaney Johnson BKN 4.5 1.5 0.7
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.2 3.4 0.8
21 Asa Newell ATL 4.0 1.7 0.6
22 Josh Minott BKN 3.6 1.7 0.8
23 RayJ Dennis ATL 3.3 1.3 1.0
24 E.J. Liddell BKN 3.0 1.3 0.6
25 Tyson Etienne BKN 2.8 0.9 0.6
26 Caleb Houstan ATL 2.5 0.8 0.5
27 Keaton Wallace ATL 1.8 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.