NBA games

WSH @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
131–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
WSH263025428131
ORL3627332713136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home ORL
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bilal Coulibaly S 37 29 5 5
Alex Sarr S 23 16 4 0
Trae Young S 21 15 3 6
Leaky Black 28 12 4 3
Bub Carrington 28 12 5 5
Justin Champagnie 17 12 4 1
Tristan Vukcevic 21 11 11 1
Will Riley S 33 8 5 0
Jamir Watkins 16 7 1 1
Anthony Gill 16 4 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Suggs S 34 28 4 8
Tristan da Silva S 41 26 7 2
Desmond Bane S 42 22 1 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 34 19 11 3
Paolo Banchero S 42 18 10 5
Jett Howard 20 10 6 2
Moritz Wagner 11 7 5 0
Jevon Carter 21 6 2 2
Goga Bitadze 4 0 2 0
Noah Penda 14 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:58 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 14-foot jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young WSH
11%
2 Alex Sarr WSH
10%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
9%
4 Will Riley WSH
9%
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
7 Paolo Banchero ORL
8%
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
9 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
10 Tre Johnson WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
46%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.8 9.9 6.6
2 Desmond Bane ORL 25.8 4.6 5.4
3 Trae Young WSH 21.8 2.5 8.6
4 Alex Sarr WSH 18.0 8.1 2.7
5 Will Riley WSH 16.2 4.0 2.9
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.0 3.5 5.6
7 Tristan da Silva ORL 13.2 5.6 3.0
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.9 9.1 2.5
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 12.4 4.4 2.5
10 Tre Johnson WSH 11.3 3.2 1.7
11 Jaden Hardy WSH 11.2 2.5 1.4
12 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.4 5.7 1.5
13 Anthony Gill WSH 10.1 4.5 2.4
14 Jamir Watkins WSH 10.0 3.4 1.3
15 Leaky Black WSH 9.7 5.4 1.0
16 Bub Carrington WSH 9.6 3.9 4.5
17 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 9.1 3.9 1.7
18 Jevon Carter ORL 8.5 2.9 3.0
19 Sharife Cooper WSH 8.5 1.9 2.4
20 Jett Howard ORL 7.3 3.1 1.3
21 Moritz Wagner ORL 6.2 3.6 1.2
22 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.7 3.9 0.9
23 Noah Penda ORL 4.4 3.5 1.0
24 Jamal Cain ORL 2.9 1.0 0.8
25 Jase Richardson ORL 2.6 0.9 0.8
26 Jonathan Isaac ORL 1.9 2.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.