NBA games

PHX @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
123–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX36312927123
IND36252720108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home IND
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 35 43 7 5
Jalen Green S 34 36 3 4
Royce O'Neale S 28 15 3 1
Jordan Goodwin 18 6 4 0
Oso Ighodaro S 25 6 5 4
Ryan Dunn 17 5 2 1
Collin Gillespie S 28 4 7 5
Khaman Maluach 14 4 3 0
Rasheer Fleming 23 2 5 1
Amir Coffey 13 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 17 23 0 2
Jarace Walker S 26 12 6 2
Ethan Thompson S 38 11 2 2
Jalen Slawson 32 10 8 5
Jay Huff 14 10 2 0
Ben Sheppard 13 10 2 1
Ivica Zubac S 16 8 6 2
Micah Potter 16 8 4 1
Kobe Brown S 18 7 2 2
Taelon Peter 24 6 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarace Walker · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Jarace Walker makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green PHX
11%
2 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
3 Jarace Walker IND
9%
4 Devin Booker PHX
9%
5 Ivica Zubac IND
9%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
7 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
8 Jay Huff IND
8%
9 Oso Ighodaro PHX
7%
10 Obi Toppin IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
43%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green PHX 19.9 4.2 3.2
2 Devin Booker PHX 19.1 4.0 5.0
3 Andrew Nembhard IND 17.9 2.9 6.4
4 Collin Gillespie PHX 17.0 4.2 6.2
5 Jarace Walker IND 16.2 7.5 4.2
6 Jay Huff IND 12.8 4.8 1.9
7 Ivica Zubac IND 12.7 10.9 1.7
8 Micah Potter IND 12.2 5.5 1.7
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.9 3.4 1.6
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX 11.0 4.2 2.0
11 Oso Ighodaro PHX 10.6 6.9 3.3
12 Kobe Brown IND 9.9 4.8 1.3
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.5 5.4 2.3
14 Ben Sheppard IND 9.3 3.1 1.9
15 Kam Jones IND 8.4 2.5 4.3
16 T.J. McConnell IND 8.2 2.3 4.1
17 Obi Toppin IND 7.0 3.7 1.4
18 Rasheer Fleming PHX 6.6 3.4 1.0
19 Taelon Peter IND 6.3 2.2 1.5
20 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.8 4.0 1.1
21 Amir Coffey PHX 5.2 2.2 1.2
22 Khaman Maluach PHX 5.0 4.2 0.7
23 Jalen Slawson IND 4.0 3.2 1.3
24 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.8 1.6 1.5
25 Ethan Thompson IND 3.2 1.2 0.7
26 Isaiah Livers PHX 2.2 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.