NBA games

PHI @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
109–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI27332128109
DET36333527131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home DET
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
MarJon Beauchamp 31 17 6 2
Jabari Walker 18 16 1 2
Cameron Payne 19 15 1 2
Quentin Grimes S 32 14 3 5
Justin Edwards S 29 12 9 5
Dominick Barlow S 26 11 4 0
VJ Edgecombe S 29 10 5 0
Dalen Terry 23 8 3 2
Trendon Watford S 20 4 2 1
Tyrese Martin 9 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Duncan Robinson S 25 19 2 4
Javonte Green 19 17 2 1
Tobias Harris S 22 15 5 2
Ronald Holland II 25 15 3 0
Jalen Duren S 15 14 10 2
Isaiah Stewart 21 13 5 4
Kevin Huerter 26 12 4 4
Cade Cunningham S 28 8 5 13
Daniss Jenkins 20 6 2 3
Marcus Sasser S 23 6 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
18%
2 Jalen Duren DET
15%
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI
14%
4 Dominick Barlow PHI
12%
5 Quentin Grimes PHI
11%
6 Duncan Robinson DET
10%
7 Tobias Harris DET
10%
8 Marcus Sasser DET
8%
9 Trendon Watford PHI
0%
10 Justin Edwards PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
29%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.0 5.6 9.9
2 Jalen Duren DET 23.0 11.3 2.2
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI 18.8 5.9 3.2
4 Quentin Grimes PHI 15.3 3.4 2.9
5 Tobias Harris DET 12.2 5.9 1.7
6 Duncan Robinson DET 11.1 3.0 2.4
7 Ronald Holland II DET 9.4 4.5 1.3
8 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.9 4.0 1.4
9 Paul Reed DET 8.7 6.1 0.9
10 Dominick Barlow PHI 7.8 3.6 1.2
11 MarJon Beauchamp PHI 7.6 2.3 1.7
12 Cameron Payne PHI 7.5 2.1 2.5
13 Daniss Jenkins DET 6.5 2.1 2.2
14 Jabari Walker PHI 6.3 3.3 0.8
15 Dalen Terry PHI 6.0 2.5 2.2
16 Kevin Huerter DET 6.0 2.8 1.8
17 Trendon Watford PHI 6.0 3.3 1.7
18 Javonte Green DET 5.7 3.1 0.8
19 Justin Edwards PHI 5.5 1.4 1.4
20 Marcus Sasser DET 5.4 1.5 1.9
21 Andre Drummond PHI 5.1 6.0 1.4
22 Tyrese Martin PHI 3.7 1.6 1.1
23 Chaz Lanier DET 3.3 1.3 0.8
24 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.7 0.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.