NBA games

MIN @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
128–153
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN27383330128
LAC38363544153

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home LAC
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 35 36 2 5
Naz Reid 26 18 3 0
Jaden McDaniels S 31 11 2 3
Jaylen Clark 6 11 0 1
Julius Randle S 28 11 6 4
Bones Hyland 16 10 0 4
Rudy Gobert S 26 9 5 4
Donte DiVincenzo S 25 6 4 2
Kyle Anderson 18 5 1 3
Terrence Shannon Jr. 12 4 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 32 45 5 5
Bennedict Mathurin 25 22 2 3
Darius Garland S 23 21 1 6
Jordan Miller 29 14 3 7
Derrick Jones Jr. S 29 12 4 1
Isaiah Jackson 18 9 6 3
Norchad Omier 6 6 0 1
Sean Pedulla 6 6 1 3
Nicolas Batum 12 6 0 0
Kris Dunn S 24 5 2 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Layup (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Darius Garland LAC
15%
2 Julius Randle MIN
13%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
12%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
5 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
10%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
7 Kawhi Leonard LAC
8%
8 Brook Lopez LAC
8%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
22%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 26.1 5.8 4.1
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.6 4.9 3.8
3 Darius Garland LAC 21.6 2.9 6.4
4 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 21.3 7.1 2.6
5 Julius Randle MIN 19.9 7.0 4.2
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.5 5.3 3.0
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 14.0 4.4 1.6
8 Brook Lopez LAC 12.6 5.0 2.0
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.1 11.1 1.8
10 Naz Reid MIN 11.8 6.2 1.7
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.8 3.6 4.5
12 Jordan Miller LAC 9.9 2.7 2.5
13 Kris Dunn LAC 8.7 5.3 4.3
14 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.0 3.5 2.1
15 Bones Hyland MIN 6.2 1.8 2.0
16 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.1 2.0 1.3
17 Isaiah Jackson LAC 5.4 4.7 0.9
18 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 4.7 1.8 1.5
19 Rocco Zikarsky MIN 4.2 2.5 0.5
20 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.0 2.1 1.1
21 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.9 1.2 0.6
22 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.6 1.5 0.6
23 Julian Phillips MIN 3.6 1.3 0.5
24 Norchad Omier LAC 2.8 2.1 0.3
25 Joe Ingles MIN 2.6 1.2 1.0
26 Mike Conley MIN 2.5 1.4 1.6
27 Cam Christie LAC 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.