NBA games

CHA @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
117–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA30293127117
SAC34282324109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home SAC
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 31 30 6 5
Miles Bridges S 31 26 2 5
Kon Knueppel S 34 24 7 3
Brandon Miller S 33 20 3 5
Coby White 20 9 2 1
Sion James 24 4 3 4
Moussa Diabate S 34 2 10 2
Xavier Tillman 14 2 6 3
Pat Connaughton 8 0 1 0
Josh Green 11 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 41 39 4 6
Nique Clifford S 41 18 4 8
Precious Achiuwa S 30 14 8 2
Daeqwon Plowden 30 13 4 0
Killian Hayes S 31 11 2 4
Doug McDermott 28 6 1 0
Maxime Raynaud S 25 4 6 2
Drew Eubanks 15 4 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LaMelo Ball · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kon Knueppel CHA
16%
2 Precious Achiuwa SAC
12%
3 LaMelo Ball CHA
11%
4 Brandon Miller CHA
11%
5 Maxime Raynaud SAC
11%
6 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
7 Moussa Diabate CHA
7%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
9 Nique Clifford SAC
7%
10 Miles Bridges CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
24%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 23.1 6.6 4.3
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 20.9 4.5 6.7
3 Kon Knueppel CHA 20.6 4.5 3.1
4 Maxime Raynaud SAC 17.2 9.8 2.3
5 Precious Achiuwa SAC 15.6 9.1 2.0
6 Coby White CHA 15.3 3.6 4.4
7 DeMar DeRozan SAC 14.8 3.1 3.8
8 Miles Bridges CHA 14.4 5.0 3.1
9 Nique Clifford SAC 12.9 5.3 3.7
10 Keegan Murray SAC 11.3 3.7 1.6
11 Devin Carter SAC 11.0 3.7 3.1
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.6 9.5 2.6
13 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 9.1 3.0 1.1
14 Josh Green CHA 6.6 2.7 1.3
15 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 6.4 6.1 1.1
16 Sion James CHA 5.9 3.7 1.8
17 Dylan Cardwell SAC 5.6 7.5 1.1
18 Drew Eubanks SAC 4.7 3.7 0.8
19 Killian Hayes SAC 4.7 1.6 2.4
20 Pat Connaughton CHA 4.1 2.2 0.8
21 Doug McDermott SAC 3.8 1.2 0.6
22 Tre Mann CHA 3.4 1.3 1.0
23 Tosan Evbuomwan CHA 3.2 1.3 0.7
24 Patrick Baldwin Jr. SAC 2.6 1.7 0.6
25 Xavier Tillman CHA 1.6 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.