NBA games

HOU @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
93–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU2027222493
DEN24294036129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home DEN
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amen Thompson S 30 16 5 4
Josh Okogie 24 12 4 3
Kevin Durant S 26 11 4 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 28 11 7 2
Alperen Sengun S 24 10 2 3
Reed Sheppard 27 9 2 2
Clint Capela 24 9 7 0
Tari Eason S 22 8 8 2
Isaiah Crawford 12 5 3 1
Aaron Holiday 16 2 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 31 30 2 4
Christian Braun S 26 19 4 3
Cameron Johnson S 25 17 2 4
Nikola Jokic S 30 16 12 13
Tim Hardaway Jr. 21 14 3 1
Jonas Valanciunas 12 12 5 3
Bruce Brown 20 7 1 2
Julian Strawther 8 6 1 0
Jalen Pickett 6 3 0 0
Tyus Jones 8 2 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes driving layup (Tari Eason assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
14%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
7 Kevin Durant HOU
9%
8 Cameron Johnson DEN
7%
9 Christian Braun DEN
7%
10 Tari Eason HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
77%
Jumper
8%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.2 12.7 8.9
2 Kevin Durant HOU 26.2 6.3 5.4
3 Jamal Murray DEN 24.3 4.6 5.4
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.8 9.1 6.3
5 Amen Thompson HOU 20.7 8.0 5.3
6 Reed Sheppard HOU 19.0 4.3 5.2
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.9 6.1 4.1
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.2 6.3 1.9
9 Christian Braun DEN 12.9 5.7 3.1
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 11.9 2.7 1.7
11 Cameron Johnson DEN 9.6 3.8 2.1
12 Tari Eason HOU 9.3 6.4 2.3
13 Bruce Brown DEN 9.1 3.5 2.6
14 Julian Strawther DEN 8.8 2.3 1.5
15 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 6.0 3.0 1.3
16 Spencer Jones DEN 5.2 3.5 0.8
17 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 4.9 3.5 0.9
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.8 1.5 0.8
19 Clint Capela HOU 4.5 4.6 1.0
20 Josh Okogie HOU 4.4 1.8 0.7
21 Jeff Green HOU 4.0 1.5 0.6
22 Tyus Jones DEN 3.8 0.9 2.5
23 David Roddy DEN 3.1 1.0 0.5
24 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.8 1.2 0.8
25 Isaiah Crawford HOU 2.7 1.5 0.6
26 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.8 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.