NBA games

TOR @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
111–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR30282528111
NO29313329122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home NO
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 34 25 6 3
Brandon Ingram S 38 22 6 5
RJ Barrett S 28 16 7 1
Jamal Shead 20 9 1 3
Scottie Barnes S 36 9 6 4
Jakob Poeltl S 30 8 5 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 21 8 5 1
Gradey Dick 8 7 1 0
Alijah Martin 1 4 0 0
Jamison Battle 10 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 34 28 7 3
Dejounte Murray S 31 27 5 6
Zion Williamson S 32 19 6 4
Herbert Jones S 36 16 2 1
Saddiq Bey S 28 9 4 4
Jeremiah Fears 17 7 2 2
Yves Missi 19 6 10 2
Karlo Matkovic 13 4 3 0
Derik Queen 14 3 5 3
DeAndre Jordan 13 3 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zion Williamson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Zion Williamson makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
14%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
3 Dejounte Murray NO
10%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
5 Saddiq Bey NO
9%
6 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
7 Herbert Jones NO
8%
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR
7%
10 Trey Murphy III NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
24%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trey Murphy III NO 22.8 4.6 4.8
2 Saddiq Bey NO 21.9 5.4 3.2
3 Zion Williamson NO 21.8 5.6 3.2
4 Brandon Ingram TOR 20.3 5.2 4.6
5 RJ Barrett TOR 20.1 5.6 3.2
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 19.8 3.2 6.6
7 Dejounte Murray NO 18.8 5.8 5.5
8 Scottie Barnes TOR 16.1 4.8 3.6
9 Jeremiah Fears NO 14.3 4.4 4.6
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.3 6.6 1.8
11 Herbert Jones NO 10.2 3.5 3.3
12 Derik Queen NO 9.9 6.3 2.6
13 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 7.9 3.7 1.5
14 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.4 3.1 1.6
15 Jordan Poole NO 7.3 2.6 1.9
16 Jamal Shead TOR 7.3 2.5 3.6
17 Karlo Matkovic NO 7.0 4.5 1.4
18 Gradey Dick TOR 4.9 1.8 0.8
19 Yves Missi NO 4.8 4.2 0.6
20 DeAndre Jordan NO 4.6 6.2 0.8
21 Jamison Battle TOR 3.5 1.8 0.6
22 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.1 2.4 0.7
23 Alijah Martin TOR 3.1 1.3 0.7
24 Kevon Looney NO 2.9 5.4 0.8
25 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 2.7 2.2 0.4
26 Garrett Temple TOR 2.7 1.2 0.6
27 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.7 1.3 0.6
28 Micah Peavy NO 2.0 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.