NBA games

CLE @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
122–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE35272733122
ORL38243432128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home ORL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 37 30 5 8
Donovan Mitchell S 36 25 5 5
Keon Ellis 31 20 4 1
Evan Mobley S 32 18 13 4
Sam Merrill S 30 13 4 2
Thomas Bryant 19 12 5 0
Jaylon Tyson 18 4 1 2
Dennis Schroder 18 0 0 2
Dean Wade S 20 0 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 36 35 6 6
Paolo Banchero S 37 25 8 7
Tristan da Silva S 34 23 4 3
Jalen Suggs S 32 12 2 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 35 11 11 4
Jevon Carter 20 9 0 2
Jett Howard 22 8 4 1
Noah Penda 11 4 2 1
Moritz Wagner 13 1 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 10-foot two point shot (Jalen Suggs assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
4 Desmond Bane ORL
11%
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
11%
6 James Harden CLE
10%
7 Sam Merrill CLE
9%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
9 Tristan da Silva ORL
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
31%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 26.4 9.2 6.1
2 Desmond Bane ORL 23.4 4.2 4.7
3 James Harden CLE 20.6 5.3 7.4
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE 18.7 3.7 4.0
5 Evan Mobley CLE 16.2 7.7 1.9
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.0 3.5 5.5
7 Tristan da Silva ORL 11.5 5.2 2.5
8 Dennis Schroder CLE 10.9 2.7 4.4
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.9 8.3 2.0
10 Jaylon Tyson CLE 10.8 4.1 1.7
11 Sam Merrill CLE 9.6 2.5 2.0
12 Jevon Carter ORL 8.0 2.7 3.0
13 Keon Ellis CLE 7.5 3.3 1.6
14 Moritz Wagner ORL 6.4 3.3 1.3
15 Dean Wade CLE 6.1 4.2 1.4
16 Jett Howard ORL 6.0 2.4 1.0
17 Thomas Bryant CLE 5.7 3.5 0.7
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.6 3.6 0.9
19 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.5 2.5 3.2
20 Noah Penda ORL 3.6 3.1 0.9
21 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.4 2.1 0.6
22 Tristan Enaruna CLE 3.3 1.4 0.5
23 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.1 2.1 0.6
24 Riley Minix CLE 3.1 1.3 0.9
25 Jase Richardson ORL 2.0 0.8 0.7
26 Jonathan Isaac ORL 1.4 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.