NBA games

MIN @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
106–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN21242338106
LAL16293936120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home LAL
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 26 14 7 2
Anthony Edwards S 31 14 2 4
Naz Reid 25 13 6 1
Ayo Dosunmu 20 13 2 1
Terrence Shannon Jr. 8 12 0 1
Bones Hyland 16 11 0 3
Donte DiVincenzo S 32 8 5 2
Jaden McDaniels S 26 6 2 0
Kyle Anderson 15 5 6 3
Jaylen Clark 4 5 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 35 31 11 11
Austin Reaves S 38 31 7 8
Deandre Ayton S 34 14 12 2
Luke Kennard 26 10 2 2
Rui Hachimura S 24 9 1 1
Jake LaRavia 25 8 7 4
Marcus Smart S 31 8 2 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 15 4 4 1
Drew Timme 3 3 0 0
Kobe Bufkin 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:27 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
14%
2 Jaden McDaniels MIN
13%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
11%
6 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
7 Marcus Smart LAL
8%
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
10 Luka Doncic LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
36%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 29.7 7.7 7.3
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.3 4.8 3.5
3 Julius Randle MIN 20.0 7.4 5.2
4 Austin Reaves LAL 19.4 4.3 4.1
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.4 5.4 3.2
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.6 11.2 1.9
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.6 3.5 4.6
8 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 11.5 2.6 2.5
9 Naz Reid MIN 10.6 6.5 1.8
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.0 3.0 1.4
11 Luke Kennard LAL 10.0 2.7 1.6
12 Deandre Ayton LAL 9.0 7.2 0.9
13 Marcus Smart LAL 8.7 2.8 2.6
14 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.9 4.9 1.1
15 Jake LaRavia LAL 6.2 3.0 1.4
16 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.5 2.7 1.6
17 Bones Hyland MIN 5.4 1.5 2.0
18 Maxi Kleber LAL 4.1 2.7 0.8
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.7 2.9 0.8
20 Drew Timme LAL 3.7 1.5 0.8
21 Kobe Bufkin LAL 3.2 1.4 0.6
22 Bronny James LAL 3.2 1.0 1.0
23 Jaylen Clark MIN 2.9 1.2 0.5
24 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.9 0.9 0.5
25 Julian Phillips MIN 2.7 1.0 0.4
26 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.6 1.2 0.5
27 Joan Beringer MIN 2.6 1.6 0.3
28 Mike Conley MIN 2.3 1.4 1.6
29 Adou Thiero LAL 1.6 1.2 0.4
30 Joe Ingles MIN 1.2 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.