NBA games

IND @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
109–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND25342327109
SAC24183042114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home SAC
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Nesmith S 35 29 4 3
Obi Toppin S 15 17 5 1
Kam Jones S 27 14 4 9
Jay Huff S 32 12 7 3
Micah Potter 16 11 7 0
Ben Sheppard 23 9 4 3
Jarace Walker S 39 8 9 2
Kobe Brown 21 5 4 0
Quenton Jackson 18 4 1 5
Taelon Peter 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Carter 16 24 5 3
Maxime Raynaud S 34 18 11 2
Russell Westbrook S 25 16 7 9
DeMar DeRozan S 24 12 3 1
Nique Clifford S 38 12 5 2
Daeqwon Plowden 31 10 6 0
Killian Hayes 23 8 4 4
Precious Achiuwa S 20 6 7 0
Drew Eubanks 14 4 4 1
Malik Monk 11 4 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Maxime Raynaud · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Maxime Raynaud makes 3-foot dunk (Russell Westbrook assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Precious Achiuwa SAC
12%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
3 Maxime Raynaud SAC
11%
4 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
5 Russell Westbrook SAC
9%
6 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
7 Jarace Walker IND
9%
8 Nique Clifford SAC
7%
9 Jay Huff IND
7%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
20%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 22.6 5.2 3.6
2 Russell Westbrook SAC 20.4 4.1 6.7
3 Jarace Walker IND 19.0 7.4 4.7
4 Andrew Nembhard IND 18.8 2.9 7.0
5 Maxime Raynaud SAC 16.9 10.7 2.3
6 Precious Achiuwa SAC 16.8 9.5 2.4
7 DeMar DeRozan SAC 15.3 3.0 4.0
8 Malik Monk SAC 15.3 2.4 3.7
9 Micah Potter IND 14.7 5.8 2.1
10 Jay Huff IND 13.7 4.9 1.9
11 Nique Clifford SAC 13.4 5.7 4.2
12 Quenton Jackson IND 11.8 3.3 3.2
13 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.2 3.4 1.8
14 Devin Carter SAC 10.4 3.9 3.5
15 Kobe Brown IND 10.3 5.2 1.7
16 Ben Sheppard IND 9.6 2.8 2.0
17 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 9.5 3.2 1.5
18 T.J. McConnell IND 8.9 2.6 4.6
19 Kam Jones IND 8.5 2.4 4.0
20 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.7 8.5 1.3
21 Obi Toppin IND 6.5 3.7 1.8
22 Taelon Peter IND 5.4 1.9 1.4
23 Drew Eubanks SAC 5.0 3.9 0.9
24 Jalen Slawson IND 5.0 3.4 1.4
25 Killian Hayes SAC 4.6 1.6 2.5
26 Doug McDermott SAC 3.5 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.