NBA games

CHA @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
103101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA20263225103
POR34212719101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home POR
75% 25%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 37 23 9 4
Kon Knueppel S 36 15 4 2
LaMelo Ball S 22 14 4 4
Ryan Kalkbrenner 17 13 6 1
Sion James 24 11 7 1
Miles Bridges S 33 11 7 3
Moussa Diabate S 31 7 9 4
Josh Green 21 3 3 1
Pat Connaughton 5 3 2 0
Grant Williams 14 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 35 24 3 3
Deni Avdija S 34 22 4 7
Scoot Henderson 19 17 1 1
Toumani Camara S 36 11 5 3
Donovan Clingan S 26 11 11 3
Robert Williams III 21 6 10 0
Jrue Holiday S 32 4 1 5
Vit Krejci 12 3 3 1
Matisse Thybulle 11 3 1 0
Kris Murray 13 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kon Knueppel · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Kon Knueppel makes 27-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
13%
2 Jrue Holiday POR
13%
3 Jerami Grant POR
12%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
5 Donovan Clingan POR
10%
6 Deni Avdija POR
10%
7 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
8 Kon Knueppel CHA
8%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Brandon Miller CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
28%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 23.1 6.3 4.4
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 21.6 4.8 6.8
3 Jrue Holiday POR 21.5 4.6 6.0
4 Kon Knueppel CHA 21.1 4.6 3.3
5 Jerami Grant POR 17.7 3.9 2.1
6 Miles Bridges CHA 14.2 5.0 3.1
7 Donovan Clingan POR 13.9 10.3 2.8
8 Scoot Henderson POR 13.3 3.0 4.0
9 Deni Avdija POR 12.4 5.1 4.4
10 Toumani Camara POR 11.7 5.5 2.3
11 Grant Williams CHA 9.9 4.2 2.8
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.6 10.0 2.6
13 Robert Williams III POR 8.6 7.0 1.3
14 Vit Krejci POR 6.9 3.4 1.4
15 Josh Green CHA 6.3 2.5 1.2
16 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 6.2 6.0 1.3
17 Kris Murray POR 6.1 3.1 1.2
18 Sion James CHA 5.8 3.3 1.7
19 Blake Wesley POR 4.7 1.3 1.7
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.3 1.9 0.9
21 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.8 2.0 0.8
22 Sidy Cissoko POR 3.8 1.8 1.1
23 Tre Mann CHA 3.8 1.5 1.0
24 Chris Youngblood POR 3.3 1.4 0.6
25 Xavier Tillman CHA 1.8 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.