NBA games

CHI @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
130–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
CHI2631322912130
GS302132356124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home GS
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Matas Buzelis S 45 41 6 2
Tre Jones 33 22 4 5
Josh Giddey S 43 21 13 17
Leonard Miller S 38 17 11 1
Jalen Smith S 34 12 12 3
Nick Richards 28 10 10 1
Rob Dillingham 20 5 3 4
Guerschon Yabusele S 23 2 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gui Santos S 37 17 5 1
Kristaps Porzingis 20 17 4 2
LJ Cryer 21 17 1 2
Pat Spencer 30 17 3 6
Al Horford S 34 13 9 5
Draymond Green S 29 12 7 4
Gary Payton II 22 12 11 2
Brandin Podziemski S 27 9 2 7
Will Richard S 32 8 4 1
Nate Williams 11 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandin Podziemski · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Gui Santos GS
11%
2 Josh Giddey CHI
11%
3 De'Anthony Melton GS
9%
4 Draymond Green GS
9%
5 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
6 Guerschon Yabusele CHI
8%
7 Matas Buzelis CHI
7%
8 Al Horford GS
7%
9 Moses Moody GS
7%
10 Isaac Okoro CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
27%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandin Podziemski GS 19.8 8.4 5.3
2 Matas Buzelis CHI 19.1 6.3 3.0
3 De'Anthony Melton GS 17.1 4.1 3.2
4 Gui Santos GS 16.9 7.1 4.6
5 Josh Giddey CHI 16.6 6.5 7.2
6 Collin Sexton CHI 16.0 2.6 2.5
7 Moses Moody GS 15.8 3.9 2.5
8 Kristaps Porzingis GS 15.2 4.6 2.1
9 Tre Jones CHI 13.0 3.3 4.7
10 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 12.3 6.3 2.6
11 Al Horford GS 12.0 5.7 3.2
12 Jalen Smith CHI 11.9 6.6 1.5
13 Draymond Green GS 11.6 4.8 6.0
14 Gary Payton II GS 11.2 4.1 2.1
15 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.9 3.1 2.0
16 Patrick Williams CHI 9.9 3.0 2.5
17 Nick Richards CHI 9.9 8.3 1.1
18 Pat Spencer GS 8.1 2.8 4.6
19 Rob Dillingham CHI 7.1 2.7 3.4
20 Nate Williams GS 6.6 2.5 1.2
21 Quinten Post GS 6.5 4.7 1.6
22 Leonard Miller CHI 5.4 2.7 0.9
23 LJ Cryer GS 5.4 2.1 1.2
24 Will Richard GS 5.3 2.3 1.3
25 Yuki Kawamura CHI 4.5 2.6 3.5
26 Malevy Leons GS 3.6 2.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.