NBA games

BOS @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
116125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS31273226116
SA29293928125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home SA
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derrick White S 40 34 5 7
Jayson Tatum S 27 24 5 2
Ron Harper Jr. 33 22 3 2
Sam Hauser S 34 11 7 3
Jaylen Brown S 15 8 2 7
Baylor Scheierman 35 6 6 3
Neemias Queta S 19 5 4 1
Luka Garza 24 3 0 1
Hugo Gonzalez 10 2 5 0
Jordan Walsh 1 1 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 37 39 11 3
De'Aaron Fox S 35 25 3 9
Stephon Castle S 34 18 9 6
Devin Vassell S 32 14 2 2
Dylan Harper 26 9 4 5
Keldon Johnson 24 8 6 0
Carter Bryant 13 8 0 0
Luke Kornet 11 4 3 2
Julian Champagnie S 27 0 5 0
Jordan McLaughlin 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Layup (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
13%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
4 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
11%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 Mason Plumlee SA
9%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
27%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.1 10.4 3.9
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.4 7.8 6.2
3 Derrick White BOS 18.2 4.7 6.0
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 17.3 3.3 6.1
5 Stephon Castle SA 16.8 4.0 6.3
6 Devin Vassell SA 13.9 4.2 2.8
7 Dylan Harper SA 13.2 3.0 4.0
8 Julian Champagnie SA 11.4 5.2 2.0
9 Neemias Queta BOS 10.6 9.1 1.2
10 Sam Hauser BOS 9.6 4.0 1.7
11 Baylor Scheierman BOS 9.5 4.6 1.8
12 Keldon Johnson SA 9.2 3.2 1.0
13 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.8 4.1 0.9
14 Carter Bryant SA 4.8 3.1 0.9
15 Luke Kornet SA 4.7 4.1 1.2
16 Luka Garza BOS 4.3 2.5 0.7
17 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.2 3.2 0.5
18 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.1 1.2 0.8
19 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.1 1.5 0.4
20 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.1 1.4 0.7
21 Mason Plumlee SA 3.1 3.1 1.3
22 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.2 1.2 0.5
23 Amari Williams BOS 1.8 1.8 0.4
24 Max Shulga BOS 1.2 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.