NBA games

PHX @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
129–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX36263829129
MIL30353217114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home MIL
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 34 27 5 7
Jalen Green S 33 25 4 5
Royce O'Neale S 32 21 5 4
Collin Gillespie S 31 12 9 9
Grayson Allen 26 12 3 3
Khaman Maluach 15 8 0 0
Oso Ighodaro S 21 8 4 2
Jordan Goodwin 14 6 1 2
Haywood Highsmith 13 6 2 1
Rasheer Fleming 17 4 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 38 33 3 3
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 32 22 6 3
Myles Turner S 32 22 9 3
Ryan Rollins S 41 14 3 7
Ousmane Dieng S 37 12 10 4
Cam Thomas 15 8 0 4
AJ Green 15 3 3 2
Taurean Prince 18 0 3 0
Pete Nance 12 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Jalen Green makes 19-foot step back jumpshot (Collin Gillespie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green PHX
14%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
11%
3 AJ Green MIL
10%
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL
10%
5 Devin Booker PHX
9%
6 Royce O'Neale PHX
9%
7 Ryan Rollins MIL
8%
8 Oso Ighodaro PHX
8%
9 Myles Turner MIL
7%
10 Collin Gillespie PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
44%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 24.4 10.6 6.0
2 Grayson Allen PHX 21.2 3.5 5.9
3 Jalen Green PHX 19.1 4.1 3.0
4 Ryan Rollins MIL 18.2 5.0 5.8
5 Devin Booker PHX 17.4 3.7 5.2
6 Collin Gillespie PHX 15.4 3.9 5.3
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL 14.6 3.9 2.8
8 Oso Ighodaro PHX 10.3 6.4 3.2
9 Cam Thomas MIL 9.7 2.3 1.9
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.5 3.6 1.9
11 Myles Turner MIL 8.7 4.3 1.2
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.4 4.9 2.0
13 Ousmane Dieng MIL 7.6 3.3 2.5
14 AJ Green MIL 6.9 2.2 1.6
15 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.3 4.4 1.2
16 Rasheer Fleming PHX 6.2 2.9 0.9
17 Taurean Prince MIL 6.0 2.0 1.0
18 Amir Coffey PHX 5.7 2.4 1.2
19 Pete Nance MIL 4.5 2.3 0.8
20 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.0 4.0 0.7
21 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.6 1.5 1.5
22 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 3.5 1.3 0.6
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.4 1.6 0.6
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.3 1.4 0.5
25 Gary Harris MIL 2.0 0.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.