NBA games

TOR @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
99–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR2920341699
HOU29292827113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home HOU
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 32 25 6 1
Scottie Barnes S 36 24 5 2
Immanuel Quickley S 33 12 4 6
Brandon Ingram S 36 9 4 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili S 30 8 4 4
Ja'Kobe Walter 21 6 2 1
Gradey Dick 8 6 0 0
Jamison Battle 9 3 2 0
Jamal Shead 19 2 1 3
Jonathan Mogbo 11 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 33 29 8 2
Amen Thompson S 39 23 3 6
Jabari Smith Jr. S 35 23 4 2
Alperen Sengun S 30 14 12 4
Tari Eason S 31 8 3 1
Reed Sheppard 24 7 7 2
Clint Capela 13 4 10 2
Dorian Finney-Smith 21 3 3 2
Aaron Holiday 3 2 0 0
Jeff Green 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
16%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
14%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
12%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
5 Kevin Durant HOU
11%
6 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
8 Tari Eason HOU
8%
9 Scottie Barnes TOR
8%
10 Reed Sheppard HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
28%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 26.5 6.4 5.0
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.0 8.2 5.9
3 Amen Thompson HOU 19.6 8.2 4.9
4 Brandon Ingram TOR 18.9 4.9 4.3
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.7 3.2 6.3
6 RJ Barrett TOR 18.5 5.8 3.5
7 Reed Sheppard HOU 18.1 4.3 4.9
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.5 6.7 1.7
9 Scottie Barnes TOR 13.2 4.6 3.3
10 Tari Eason HOU 8.4 6.4 2.1
11 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 8.0 3.6 1.3
12 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.4 3.2 1.7
13 Jamal Shead TOR 6.9 2.3 3.3
14 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 5.3 2.6 1.2
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.8 1.5 0.8
16 Gradey Dick TOR 4.4 2.0 0.8
17 Josh Okogie HOU 4.1 1.8 0.7
18 Clint Capela HOU 3.7 3.9 0.8
19 Jeff Green HOU 3.6 1.3 0.6
20 Isaiah Crawford HOU 3.5 1.8 0.7
21 Jamison Battle TOR 3.1 1.6 0.6
22 Alijah Martin TOR 2.3 1.4 0.4
23 Garrett Temple TOR 2.1 1.0 0.6
24 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.8 2.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.