NBA games

DAL @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
112–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL26273821112
ATL40243129124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home ATL
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson 28 21 1 1
Khris Middleton 24 16 1 2
Daniel Gafford S 25 14 10 1
Naji Marshall S 30 14 2 4
Cooper Flagg S 32 14 12 5
Brandon Williams 18 13 2 5
P.J. Washington S 29 7 6 0
Marvin Bagley III 21 7 6 6
Max Christie S 25 6 3 1
Ryan Nembhard 9 0 0 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 37 29 2 3
Jalen Johnson S 38 27 7 8
Onyeka Okongwu S 33 18 9 2
Dyson Daniels S 36 14 7 10
CJ McCollum S 28 13 9 4
Mouhamed Gueye 10 9 5 0
Gabe Vincent 11 8 0 1
Zaccharie Risacher 17 4 3 0
Corey Kispert 15 2 0 0
Jock Landale 15 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes 5-foot two point shot (Naji Marshall assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
13%
2 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
11%
3 Cooper Flagg DAL
11%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
10%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
8 CJ McCollum ATL
9%
9 Max Christie DAL
9%
10 Khris Middleton DAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
18%
Layup
45%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cooper Flagg DAL 26.1 7.3 4.9
2 CJ McCollum ATL 22.2 4.0 5.4
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 20.3 3.8 5.9
4 Naji Marshall DAL 19.2 4.0 3.9
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.3 7.0 5.3
6 Brandon Williams DAL 17.1 3.9 4.7
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.4 7.6 3.4
8 Khris Middleton DAL 13.3 4.4 3.6
9 P.J. Washington DAL 13.2 5.6 2.3
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.9 7.1 5.3
11 Max Christie DAL 12.1 3.6 2.0
12 Marvin Bagley III DAL 11.3 7.9 1.4
13 Klay Thompson DAL 11.2 2.0 1.6
14 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.4 6.9 1.4
15 Corey Kispert ATL 9.4 3.1 1.9
16 Jock Landale ATL 8.6 3.9 1.3
17 Buddy Hield ATL 7.9 2.2 1.6
18 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 7.7 4.6 1.5
19 Caleb Martin DAL 5.9 2.6 0.9
20 Ryan Nembhard DAL 5.1 1.6 3.2
21 Dwight Powell DAL 4.7 3.7 0.9
22 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.6 1.2 1.7
23 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.1 3.5 0.7
24 AJ Johnson DAL 3.5 1.4 0.9
25 Christian Koloko ATL 3.4 3.3 0.5
26 Caleb Houstan ATL 2.6 0.9 0.5
27 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.0 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.