NBA games

WSH @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
129–150
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH29333532129
MIA40363737150

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home MIA
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Sarr S 20 28 6 1
Will Riley S 40 22 4 2
Jaden Hardy 23 17 1 0
Tre Johnson S 23 17 2 2
Bub Carrington S 36 12 4 6
Bilal Coulibaly S 35 10 6 7
Justin Champagnie 18 8 5 2
Anthony Gill 25 6 5 3
Sharife Cooper 15 6 0 1
Tristan Vukcevic 7 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 42 83 9 3
Simone Fontecchio 22 18 6 1
Davion Mitchell S 24 12 7 5
Pelle Larsson S 24 10 2 1
Keshad Johnson 19 8 1 0
Kasparas Jakucionis S 30 5 5 6
Dru Smith 23 5 3 5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 28 5 6 8
Myron Gardner S 26 4 8 2
Vladislav Goldin 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 5-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 Alex Sarr WSH
11%
3 Norman Powell MIA
10%
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
5 Tre Johnson WSH
9%
6 Pelle Larsson MIA
9%
7 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
8 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
9 Kyshawn George WSH
8%
10 Tristan Vukcevic WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
31%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.8 10.3 3.9
2 Tyler Herro MIA 23.7 4.6 5.5
3 Alex Sarr WSH 18.3 8.3 2.8
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 18.2 5.1 4.5
5 Norman Powell MIA 15.4 3.1 2.3
6 Will Riley WSH 14.6 3.8 2.6
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 12.6 4.4 2.4
8 Kel'el Ware MIA 12.4 10.5 1.3
9 Pelle Larsson MIA 11.9 4.1 4.0
10 Tre Johnson WSH 11.3 3.6 1.7
11 Justin Champagnie WSH 11.0 5.6 1.3
12 Jamir Watkins WSH 10.7 3.7 1.3
13 Jaden Hardy WSH 10.4 2.5 1.3
14 Anthony Gill WSH 10.2 4.5 2.4
15 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.9 3.2 5.1
16 Kyshawn George WSH 9.8 2.8 1.6
17 Bub Carrington WSH 9.2 3.9 4.4
18 Sharife Cooper WSH 8.8 2.2 3.0
19 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 8.1 3.5 1.3
20 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 7.6 3.1 2.4
21 Simone Fontecchio MIA 6.2 2.3 1.1
22 Dru Smith MIA 4.7 2.6 1.8
23 Myron Gardner MIA 4.6 3.1 1.7
24 Trevor Keels MIA 4.5 1.6 1.1
25 Nikola Jovic MIA 3.7 1.8 0.7
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.9 1.0 0.5
27 Vladislav Goldin MIA 2.9 2.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.