NBA games

DET @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
138–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET38353233138
BKN27133327100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home BKN
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 23 26 4 2
Cade Cunningham S 26 21 3 15
Ronald Holland II 30 16 3 2
Duncan Robinson S 16 15 3 1
Daniss Jenkins 22 14 3 6
Marcus Sasser S 21 14 3 1
Javonte Green 23 8 4 0
Paul Reed 8 8 4 0
Kevin Huerter 22 7 3 4
Isaiah Stewart 22 4 8 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 22 19 2 1
Jalen Wilson 25 14 3 0
Danny Wolf 28 13 8 2
Ben Saraf 20 10 2 6
Drake Powell S 23 10 1 0
Noah Clowney S 18 9 3 1
Josh Minott 21 9 3 0
Tyson Etienne 12 7 0 3
Chaney Johnson 22 5 1 1
Nic Claxton S 21 2 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Duncan Robinson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Duncan Robinson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
16%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Jalen Duren DET
9%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
5 Nolan Traore BKN
8%
6 Tobias Harris DET
8%
7 Noah Clowney BKN
7%
8 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
9 Danny Wolf BKN
6%
10 Drake Powell BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
24%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.2 5.9 10.5
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 22.1 6.5 3.4
3 Jalen Duren DET 21.7 11.2 2.0
4 Nic Claxton BKN 13.8 6.8 4.0
5 Tobias Harris DET 13.4 6.4 2.0
6 Nolan Traore BKN 13.3 2.6 4.5
7 Noah Clowney BKN 12.6 3.8 1.8
8 Danny Wolf BKN 10.5 4.3 2.9
9 Duncan Robinson DET 10.4 2.7 2.2
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.8 3.8 1.5
11 Paul Reed DET 9.7 6.1 1.2
12 Ronald Holland II DET 8.6 4.4 1.3
13 Terance Mann BKN 7.7 2.9 2.1
14 Drake Powell BKN 6.7 2.5 1.4
15 Ochai Agbaji BKN 6.6 2.2 1.1
16 Ben Saraf BKN 6.6 1.8 3.4
17 Daniss Jenkins DET 6.2 2.0 1.9
18 Kevin Huerter DET 6.1 3.4 1.7
19 Javonte Green DET 5.7 3.1 0.8
20 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.7 2.2 0.9
21 Marcus Sasser DET 4.3 1.4 1.9
22 Tyson Etienne BKN 3.8 1.0 0.6
23 Chaz Lanier DET 3.3 1.2 0.7
24 E.J. Liddell BKN 3.1 1.4 0.6
25 Josh Minott BKN 2.5 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.