NBA games

MEM @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
129–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM32393325129
PHI32363041139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home PHI
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ty Jerome S 25 26 2 8
GG Jackson 25 15 3 2
Rayan Rupert 22 14 2 0
Cedric Coward S 24 13 16 3
Javon Small 26 12 5 7
Cam Spencer 24 12 1 3
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 21 11 6 0
Jaylen Wells S 22 11 3 0
Taylor Hendricks S 25 8 5 2
Jahmai Mashack 27 7 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Payne 30 32 3 10
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 38 30 12 1
Quentin Grimes S 35 23 3 2
VJ Edgecombe S 35 21 5 5
Dominick Barlow S 34 11 6 1
Trendon Watford 15 11 4 2
Dalen Terry 22 5 2 4
Adem Bona S 16 4 3 1
Jabari Walker 9 2 2 0
Justin Edwards 6 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 25-foot three pointer (Adem Bona assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 GG Jackson MEM
11%
2 Ty Jerome MEM
11%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
4 Jaylen Wells MEM
10%
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI
9%
6 Adem Bona PHI
8%
7 Quentin Grimes PHI
8%
8 Dominick Barlow PHI
7%
9 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
7%
10 Cam Spencer MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
32%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ty Jerome MEM 20.4 3.4 5.7
2 GG Jackson MEM 19.5 6.9 2.4
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI 17.5 6.0 2.7
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.0 4.8 3.0
5 Jaylen Wells MEM 16.0 3.3 2.4
6 Quentin Grimes PHI 14.9 3.6 2.9
7 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 13.6 4.5 2.3
8 Cedric Coward MEM 12.4 5.0 2.9
9 Javon Small MEM 12.3 4.3 3.9
10 Taylor Hendricks MEM 12.2 4.9 1.8
11 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 10.6 2.6 6.4
12 Cam Spencer MEM 10.3 3.2 4.7
13 Jahmai Mashack MEM 9.2 3.7 1.5
14 Rayan Rupert MEM 9.1 4.7 1.3
15 MarJon Beauchamp PHI 8.6 2.7 1.9
16 Adem Bona PHI 7.3 6.4 1.4
17 Dominick Barlow PHI 7.0 3.7 1.2
18 Trendon Watford PHI 6.7 3.5 2.2
19 Jabari Walker PHI 6.7 3.4 0.9
20 Andre Drummond PHI 6.1 6.5 1.6
21 Justin Edwards PHI 6.0 1.8 1.5
22 Dalen Terry PHI 5.6 2.7 1.9
23 Cameron Payne PHI 5.6 1.8 2.2
24 Tyrese Martin PHI 4.6 2.0 1.3
25 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.2 0.8 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.