NBA games

NY @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
118–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY24312637118
LAC28362438126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home LAC
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 35 12 7
Jalen Brunson S 38 28 4 8
OG Anunoby S 37 22 6 2
Josh Hart S 37 12 13 3
Landry Shamet 23 9 1 0
Mikal Bridges S 26 7 7 4
Mohamed Diawara 18 5 4 2
Jose Alvarado 8 0 1 3
Tyler Kolek 2 0 0 1
Ariel Hukporti 12 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 35 29 7 8
Bennedict Mathurin 36 28 7 1
Darius Garland S 30 23 1 7
Derrick Jones Jr. S 34 16 7 2
Brook Lopez S 30 16 4 3
Kris Dunn S 29 5 7 3
Isaiah Jackson 17 4 3 0
Nicolas Batum 11 3 0 0
Jordan Miller 18 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick Jones Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Derrick Jones Jr. makes 24-foot running jump shot (Kawhi Leonard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
15%
2 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
11%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
4 Darius Garland LAC
11%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
7 Brook Lopez LAC
8%
8 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
9 Josh Hart NY
8%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
26%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.0 5.5 3.4
2 Jalen Brunson NY 23.9 4.0 8.4
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 20.6 11.2 2.9
4 Darius Garland LAC 20.4 2.9 6.4
5 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 20.2 6.4 2.8
6 OG Anunoby NY 15.6 4.6 1.8
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 13.1 3.9 1.6
8 Mikal Bridges NY 12.6 3.9 3.2
9 Brook Lopez LAC 12.1 4.8 2.0
10 Josh Hart NY 11.7 6.4 4.5
11 Landry Shamet NY 11.0 2.2 1.7
12 Kris Dunn LAC 9.7 4.6 4.8
13 Jordan Miller LAC 9.7 2.7 2.4
14 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.6 2.1 1.5
15 Mohamed Diawara NY 6.5 2.1 1.1
16 Jose Alvarado NY 5.8 2.2 3.1
17 Jordan Clarkson NY 5.7 1.5 1.0
18 Isaiah Jackson LAC 4.8 4.0 0.9
19 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 4.4 1.7 1.5
20 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.8 2.0 1.0
21 Tyler Kolek NY 3.4 1.2 2.4
22 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.6 1.1 0.6
23 Cam Christie LAC 2.3 1.2 0.6
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.3 2.3 0.5
25 Norchad Omier LAC 2.1 2.0 0.3
26 Jeremy Sochan NY 1.9 1.2 0.6
27 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 1.8 0.9 0.6
28 Trey Jemison III NY 1.3 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.