NBA games

GS @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
116119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS27282932116
UTAH29303228119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home UTAH
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Anthony Melton S 20 22 7 2
Gui Santos S 33 15 8 5
Brandin Podziemski S 35 14 8 4
Gary Payton II 25 13 1 0
Seth Curry 12 13 1 3
Nate Williams 13 12 4 1
LJ Cryer 17 11 5 2
Quinten Post S 25 10 4 2
Draymond Green S 32 6 2 11
Pat Spencer 13 0 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brice Sensabaugh S 29 21 2 3
Kyle Filipowski S 25 19 15 5
Elijah Harkless 24 16 2 6
Keyonte George S 24 15 0 2
Kevin Love 15 12 8 1
Cody Williams S 43 12 3 7
Blake Hinson 28 12 2 1
Oscar Tshiebwe 20 10 8 1
John Konchar S 33 2 10 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gui Santos · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Gui Santos makes 3-foot layup (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Keyonte George UTAH
12%
2 Walker Kessler UTAH
11%
3 Gui Santos GS
10%
4 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
10%
5 De'Anthony Melton GS
10%
6 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
7 Cody Williams UTAH
8%
8 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH
8%
9 Moses Moody GS
8%
10 Pat Spencer GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
38%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Keyonte George UTAH 24.6 3.5 4.7
2 Brandin Podziemski GS 19.4 7.8 5.1
3 Walker Kessler UTAH 17.5 10.9 4.2
4 Gui Santos GS 17.1 7.0 4.5
5 De'Anthony Melton GS 17.0 3.6 3.0
6 Moses Moody GS 15.9 4.0 2.5
7 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 15.5 7.9 3.9
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 15.3 3.4 2.2
9 Draymond Green GS 11.4 4.9 5.3
10 Gary Payton II GS 11.2 4.6 2.1
11 Pat Spencer GS 10.3 2.7 4.9
12 Cody Williams UTAH 8.8 4.1 2.3
13 Blake Hinson UTAH 8.2 2.6 1.1
14 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.1 2.2 1.4
15 Nate Williams GS 6.2 2.2 1.1
16 John Konchar UTAH 5.9 4.0 1.8
17 Kevin Love UTAH 5.9 5.2 1.8
18 Will Richard GS 5.4 2.3 1.3
19 Elijah Harkless UTAH 5.1 1.7 2.1
20 Quinten Post GS 4.8 3.9 1.2
21 LJ Cryer GS 4.7 1.8 1.0
22 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 3.6 3.6 0.8
23 Malevy Leons GS 3.5 2.4 0.7
24 Mo Bamba UTAH 3.0 4.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.