NBA games

DEN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
126–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN40203333126
OKC37293033129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home OKC
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 40 32 14 13
Tim Hardaway Jr. 33 28 2 2
Aaron Gordon S 28 23 10 3
Jamal Murray S 37 21 8 6
Spencer Jones 16 6 5 0
Cameron Johnson S 23 6 3 1
Christian Braun S 38 4 9 2
Bruce Brown 16 4 3 1
Jonas Valanciunas 6 2 2 1
Julian Strawther 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 39 35 9 15
Jaylin Williams S 40 29 12 3
Ajay Mitchell 29 24 2 3
Isaiah Joe S 32 13 4 2
Jared McCain 22 13 1 1
Luguentz Dort S 30 6 4 0
Cason Wallace S 17 4 2 1
Aaron Wiggins 18 3 2 0
Kenrich Williams 13 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 8-foot floating jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
3 Ajay Mitchell OKC
10%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
5 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
6 Isaiah Joe OKC
8%
7 Cason Wallace OKC
8%
8 Jamal Murray DEN
8%
9 Cameron Johnson DEN
8%
10 Christian Braun DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
81%
Jumper
4%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.1 5.1 7.6
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.1 12.1 7.9
3 Jamal Murray DEN 22.3 4.2 5.2
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC 16.2 3.9 4.3
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.3 6.0 3.8
6 Cason Wallace OKC 14.1 3.9 5.5
7 Christian Braun DEN 13.7 5.7 3.4
8 Isaiah Joe OKC 13.4 3.4 2.1
9 Jared McCain OKC 11.6 2.9 1.6
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 11.4 2.9 1.5
11 Jaylin Williams OKC 11.3 6.6 3.0
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.3 3.7 2.0
13 Cameron Johnson DEN 10.3 4.2 2.0
14 Aaron Wiggins OKC 10.2 3.4 2.2
15 Bruce Brown DEN 9.9 3.7 2.7
16 Julian Strawther DEN 9.9 2.6 1.6
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 7.0 3.1 1.1
18 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 5.1 3.9 0.8
19 Tyus Jones DEN 4.7 1.3 2.8
20 Nikola Topic OKC 4.7 1.4 2.5
21 Spencer Jones DEN 4.6 3.4 0.8
22 David Roddy DEN 3.7 1.3 0.7
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.7 1.6 1.0
24 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 3.5 1.9 1.1
25 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.6 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.