NBA games

MEM @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
115–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM31262929115
BKN33322635126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home BKN
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rayan Rupert 36 20 8 1
Javon Small S 32 19 7 3
GG Jackson S 26 18 4 4
Jaylen Wells S 26 17 5 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 32 15 4 1
Walter Clayton Jr. 29 13 0 4
Jahmai Mashack 31 7 6 2
Cam Spencer S 26 6 2 8
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Day'Ron Sharpe 18 19 5 2
Ochai Agbaji 22 18 3 1
Nolan Traore S 23 17 1 4
Danny Wolf S 28 14 9 2
Ziaire Williams 19 11 4 4
Noah Clowney S 20 10 3 3
Drake Powell S 27 9 3 2
Nic Claxton S 21 9 8 5
Jalen Wilson 23 6 3 4
Ben Saraf 25 4 2 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes alley oop dunk (Nolan Traore assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ty Jerome MEM
14%
2 GG Jackson MEM
13%
3 Jaylen Wells MEM
12%
4 Nolan Traore BKN
12%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
12%
6 Noah Clowney BKN
10%
7 Rayan Rupert MEM
9%
8 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
9%
9 Terance Mann BKN
8%
10 Javon Small MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
31%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ty Jerome MEM 20.7 3.4 5.8
2 GG Jackson MEM 19.4 6.9 2.4
3 Jaylen Wells MEM 15.8 3.1 2.3
4 Nic Claxton BKN 14.4 6.9 3.8
5 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 12.9 4.6 2.2
6 Nolan Traore BKN 12.6 2.8 4.6
7 Noah Clowney BKN 12.5 3.9 1.8
8 Cedric Coward MEM 12.5 5.0 3.0
9 Taylor Hendricks MEM 12.4 4.9 1.9
10 Javon Small MEM 12.3 4.2 4.1
11 Danny Wolf BKN 10.6 4.4 3.6
12 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 10.1 2.8 6.5
13 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.0 2.6 1.8
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 9.8 6.6 2.8
15 Cam Spencer MEM 9.7 3.1 5.0
16 Jahmai Mashack MEM 9.3 3.0 1.7
17 Terance Mann BKN 8.1 3.1 2.2
18 Ben Saraf BKN 6.7 1.8 2.9
19 Rayan Rupert MEM 6.0 3.5 1.2
20 Ochai Agbaji BKN 5.9 2.4 1.1
21 Drake Powell BKN 4.6 1.7 1.0
22 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.3 2.0 0.8
23 Tyson Etienne BKN 3.8 1.0 0.7
24 E.J. Liddell BKN 3.3 1.4 0.7
25 Josh Minott BKN 3.0 1.4 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.