NBA games

PHI @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
101–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI20242235101
CLE26303128115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home CLE
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quentin Grimes S 36 17 5 3
Justin Edwards 28 14 2 3
Cameron Payne S 28 12 6 4
Dalen Terry 19 9 3 4
Adem Bona S 26 8 7 0
MarJon Beauchamp 5 8 0 0
Dominick Barlow S 20 8 1 0
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 14 6 2 1
Trendon Watford 20 6 5 2
Jabari Walker 12 5 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 29 21 5 5
Keon Ellis 26 19 2 0
Donovan Mitchell S 31 17 3 6
Evan Mobley S 28 15 8 1
Dean Wade S 20 13 10 2
Jaylon Tyson 21 11 1 2
Thomas Bryant 13 8 5 1
Dennis Schroder 22 4 1 2
Tristan Enaruna 4 3 1 1
Sam Merrill S 21 2 3 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dominick Barlow · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Dominick Barlow makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
15%
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
13%
3 James Harden CLE
12%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
5 Adem Bona PHI
11%
6 Quentin Grimes PHI
11%
7 Dominick Barlow PHI
10%
8 Sam Merrill CLE
8%
9 Dean Wade CLE
8%
10 Jaylon Tyson CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
35%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden CLE 21.4 5.0 8.7
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 21.1 3.8 4.9
3 Evan Mobley CLE 19.1 8.5 2.7
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 16.1 4.9 2.9
5 Sam Merrill CLE 12.7 3.0 2.2
6 Quentin Grimes PHI 12.6 3.3 2.6
7 Dennis Schroder CLE 12.5 3.1 5.0
8 Jaylon Tyson CLE 11.9 4.5 1.8
9 Keon Ellis CLE 7.1 3.6 1.9
10 Dominick Barlow PHI 7.0 3.5 1.1
11 Dean Wade CLE 6.9 3.9 1.5
12 Thomas Bryant CLE 6.6 3.7 1.0
13 Trendon Watford PHI 6.2 3.0 2.0
14 Adem Bona PHI 6.2 5.7 1.3
15 Andre Drummond PHI 6.0 6.2 1.6
16 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.5 2.8 3.4
17 Jabari Walker PHI 5.4 3.0 0.8
18 Cameron Payne PHI 4.7 1.3 1.9
19 Justin Edwards PHI 3.8 1.0 0.8
20 Tyrese Martin PHI 3.6 1.4 0.8
21 Dalen Terry PHI 3.6 1.7 1.2
22 Riley Minix CLE 3.6 1.6 1.1
23 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.2 1.8 0.5
24 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.6 1.9 0.6
25 Tristan Enaruna CLE 2.5 1.1 0.4
26 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.0 0.7 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.