NBA games

CHI @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
110–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI25263821110
SAC30353922126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home SAC
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton 22 28 2 3
Matas Buzelis S 30 20 8 4
Josh Giddey S 34 15 12 10
Tre Jones S 32 12 1 5
Nick Richards 21 10 11 1
Isaac Okoro S 24 9 1 1
Patrick Williams 17 5 1 0
Jalen Smith 20 4 3 0
Guerschon Yabusele S 22 4 5 3
Rob Dillingham 15 3 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk 31 30 4 5
Maxime Raynaud S 38 26 11 2
Russell Westbrook S 35 23 11 12
Daeqwon Plowden S 35 16 3 2
Precious Achiuwa S 39 13 9 3
Nique Clifford S 31 8 6 3
Drew Eubanks 10 5 4 0
Devin Carter 6 3 4 3
Killian Hayes 16 2 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Russell Westbrook · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Russell Westbrook makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Maxime Raynaud SAC
11%
2 Precious Achiuwa SAC
11%
3 Russell Westbrook SAC
9%
4 Collin Sexton CHI
8%
5 Guerschon Yabusele CHI
8%
6 Matas Buzelis CHI
7%
7 Nique Clifford SAC
7%
8 Patrick Williams CHI
7%
9 Tre Jones CHI
7%
10 Josh Giddey CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
31%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
30%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Matas Buzelis CHI 19.0 6.2 2.9
2 Russell Westbrook SAC 18.0 3.6 5.9
3 Maxime Raynaud SAC 16.2 11.0 2.3
4 Collin Sexton CHI 16.0 2.8 2.5
5 Josh Giddey CHI 15.8 5.8 7.1
6 Precious Achiuwa SAC 15.8 9.0 2.2
7 Tre Jones CHI 13.9 3.8 5.2
8 Nique Clifford SAC 13.4 5.7 4.5
9 Malik Monk SAC 13.1 2.2 3.5
10 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 12.5 6.1 2.4
11 Jalen Smith CHI 12.2 6.2 1.4
12 Isaac Okoro CHI 11.8 3.4 2.5
13 Devin Carter SAC 10.9 3.9 3.5
14 Nick Richards CHI 10.2 8.3 1.2
15 Patrick Williams CHI 9.2 3.0 2.2
16 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 8.2 3.2 1.5
17 Rob Dillingham CHI 7.7 2.9 3.5
18 Leonard Miller CHI 5.5 2.8 1.0
19 Yuki Kawamura CHI 5.1 2.8 4.1
20 Drew Eubanks SAC 4.9 3.4 0.9
21 Killian Hayes SAC 4.6 1.4 2.4
22 Doug McDermott SAC 4.3 1.4 0.8
23 Patrick Baldwin Jr. SAC 3.8 2.4 1.0
24 Isaiah Stevens SAC 3.3 0.7 1.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.