NBA games

IND @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
111–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND30222831111
POR30393131131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home POR
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 32 22 6 5
Jay Huff S 22 16 6 1
Andrew Nembhard S 28 14 2 9
Jarace Walker S 31 14 3 1
Micah Potter 16 13 4 1
Aaron Nesmith S 25 9 1 2
Kobe Brown 20 8 6 1
T.J. McConnell 17 6 4 3
Obi Toppin 11 4 2 0
Ben Sheppard 17 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scoot Henderson 26 28 3 6
Jrue Holiday S 25 21 3 3
Jerami Grant S 32 21 2 1
Deni Avdija S 25 18 5 8
Robert Williams III 20 12 7 2
Donovan Clingan S 24 9 11 3
Vit Krejci 22 7 6 1
Toumani Camara S 28 7 11 2
Yang Hansen 4 5 1 0
Kris Murray 17 3 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Nesmith · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:52 Q1
"Aaron Nesmith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jrue Holiday POR
11%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
3 Jerami Grant POR
8%
4 Jarace Walker IND
8%
5 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
6 Deni Avdija POR
7%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
8 Shaedon Sharpe POR
7%
9 Jay Huff IND
6%
10 Scoot Henderson POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
21%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jrue Holiday POR 24.2 4.8 7.0
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.8 5.4 3.2
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 21.5 3.8 3.4
4 Jarace Walker IND 18.5 7.7 4.8
5 Andrew Nembhard IND 18.5 2.9 6.6
6 Jerami Grant POR 18.5 4.2 2.5
7 Donovan Clingan POR 16.5 11.1 3.2
8 Micah Potter IND 14.1 5.9 2.3
9 Deni Avdija POR 14.1 5.0 4.9
10 Scoot Henderson POR 13.4 3.2 4.1
11 Quenton Jackson IND 13.2 3.4 3.3
12 Toumani Camara POR 13.1 5.5 2.8
13 Jay Huff IND 12.9 4.5 2.0
14 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.4 3.6 1.9
15 Kobe Brown IND 10.3 5.3 1.6
16 Ben Sheppard IND 9.9 3.3 2.2
17 Robert Williams III POR 9.4 7.6 1.5
18 T.J. McConnell IND 8.6 2.1 4.5
19 Vit Krejci POR 8.4 3.4 1.7
20 Kam Jones IND 8.1 2.1 3.5
21 Obi Toppin IND 7.1 3.9 2.0
22 Kris Murray POR 6.3 3.0 1.2
23 Blake Wesley POR 5.8 1.6 2.1
24 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.0 2.2 1.0
25 Sidy Cissoko POR 4.4 2.6 1.3
26 Yang Hansen POR 1.8 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.