NBA games

CHA @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
99–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA3028192299
PHX28322130111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home PHX
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 33 22 7 6
Miles Bridges S 29 16 7 1
Kon Knueppel S 30 15 1 4
Brandon Miller S 32 11 9 3
Ryan Kalkbrenner 19 10 7 0
Grant Williams 19 10 2 2
Coby White 20 7 1 4
Josh Green 14 3 0 1
Sion James 14 3 2 1
Moussa Diabate S 27 2 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 35 30 3 10
Jalen Green S 30 24 4 2
Collin Gillespie S 36 24 5 4
Rasheer Fleming 23 16 2 0
Khaman Maluach 20 4 9 0
Ryan Dunn 10 3 1 0
Haywood Highsmith 21 3 4 2
Royce O'Neale S 32 3 7 1
Oso Ighodaro S 28 2 4 5
Amir Coffey 5 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Miller · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Brandon Miller makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (LaMelo Ball assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
21%
2 Kon Knueppel CHA
12%
3 Devin Booker PHX
10%
4 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
5 Oso Ighodaro PHX
9%
6 Jalen Green PHX
8%
7 Moussa Diabate CHA
8%
8 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
9 Miles Bridges CHA
7%
10 Collin Gillespie PHX
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
34%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 23.9 6.4 4.0
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 19.0 4.5 6.4
3 Kon Knueppel CHA 18.5 4.9 3.2
4 Coby White CHA 16.6 3.9 4.6
5 Devin Booker PHX 16.5 3.6 3.9
6 Jalen Green PHX 15.7 3.9 2.7
7 Miles Bridges CHA 13.3 4.5 2.9
8 Collin Gillespie PHX 12.8 3.8 5.0
9 Oso Ighodaro PHX 10.2 6.5 3.0
10 Grant Williams CHA 9.4 4.2 2.4
11 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.0 9.5 2.3
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.4 4.4 1.9
13 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.2 4.4 1.2
14 Josh Green CHA 6.1 2.5 1.0
15 Amir Coffey PHX 6.1 2.6 1.1
16 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 5.8 5.5 1.2
17 Sion James CHA 5.5 3.3 1.7
18 Rasheer Fleming PHX 5.0 2.8 0.8
19 Khaman Maluach PHX 3.5 3.0 0.6
20 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.2 1.3 1.4
21 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.8 1.5 0.6
22 Tre Mann CHA 2.8 1.3 0.8
23 Isaiah Livers PHX 1.6 1.1 0.5
24 Xavier Tillman CHA 1.5 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.