NBA games

HOU @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
120–145
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU33243726120
SA32374135145

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home SA
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 33 23 5 4
Amen Thompson S 36 23 7 6
Reed Sheppard 35 17 3 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 31 17 5 3
Alperen Sengun S 27 16 6 3
Dorian Finney-Smith 21 8 2 3
Jeff Green 4 7 0 0
Aaron Holiday 8 5 0 0
Clint Capela 14 2 3 1
Tari Eason S 20 2 6 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 30 29 8 1
Stephon Castle S 26 23 3 5
Keldon Johnson 26 20 1 2
De'Aaron Fox S 32 20 2 10
Dylan Harper 26 19 2 6
Julian Champagnie S 29 11 5 4
Carter Bryant 13 7 3 0
Devin Vassell S 30 5 5 3
Jordan McLaughlin 4 3 1 1
Kelly Olynyk 4 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot three pointer (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
3 Stephon Castle SA
11%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
5 De'Aaron Fox SA
10%
6 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
8 Tari Eason HOU
7%
9 Reed Sheppard HOU
7%
10 Devin Vassell SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
36%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.1 11.5 3.6
2 Kevin Durant HOU 24.8 6.1 4.8
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.5 7.8 5.2
4 Amen Thompson HOU 18.0 8.2 4.2
5 Reed Sheppard HOU 17.6 4.1 4.9
6 Stephon Castle SA 15.5 4.4 6.0
7 De'Aaron Fox SA 15.3 3.4 5.1
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.3 7.1 1.6
9 Devin Vassell SA 15.2 4.1 2.8
10 Dylan Harper SA 12.9 3.3 3.9
11 Julian Champagnie SA 10.7 5.0 1.8
12 Tari Eason HOU 9.6 6.1 2.1
13 Keldon Johnson SA 9.4 3.7 1.1
14 Luke Kornet SA 5.1 4.4 1.2
15 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 5.0 2.9 1.1
16 Carter Bryant SA 4.7 3.4 0.9
17 Josh Okogie HOU 4.6 2.0 0.6
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.4 1.6 0.8
19 Clint Capela HOU 4.1 4.4 0.7
20 Lindy Waters III SA 3.3 1.1 0.5
21 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.1 1.2 0.8
22 Isaiah Crawford HOU 2.5 1.4 0.4
23 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.3 1.1 0.5
24 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.3 1.3 0.5
25 Jeff Green HOU 2.2 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.