NBA games

ORL @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
130–91
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL25423330130
MIL1540152191

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home MIL
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 29 33 5 3
Jalen Suggs S 24 20 3 2
Desmond Bane S 30 18 5 9
Jett Howard 25 14 2 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 22 9 5 2
Noah Penda 24 8 7 4
Jamal Cain 8 8 0 0
Goga Bitadze 8 7 5 2
Tristan da Silva S 27 5 6 5
Jevon Carter 24 5 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bobby Portis 28 18 10 3
Cam Thomas 20 17 1 6
Ryan Rollins S 23 15 1 1
Jericho Sims S 25 10 7 2
Gary Trent Jr. 25 9 3 0
Pete Nance 22 6 3 2
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 9 4 3 1
AJ Green S 28 4 1 0
Myles Turner S 23 3 0 1
Andre Jackson Jr. 12 3 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ryan Rollins MIL
18%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
17%
3 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
16%
4 Myles Turner MIL
13%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
12%
6 Ousmane Dieng MIL
12%
7 Desmond Bane ORL
11%
8 AJ Green MIL
0%
9 Bobby Portis MIL
0%
10 Tristan da Silva ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
32%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.7 9.0 6.2
2 Desmond Bane ORL 24.7 4.2 4.4
3 Ryan Rollins MIL 18.5 5.6 5.9
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.2 4.2 6.1
5 Bobby Portis MIL 12.3 5.1 1.5
6 Tristan da Silva ORL 11.7 5.4 2.2
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.0 8.6 2.0
8 Ousmane Dieng MIL 9.8 4.0 2.5
9 Myles Turner MIL 9.2 4.6 1.3
10 Cam Thomas MIL 8.9 2.2 1.5
11 AJ Green MIL 8.2 2.2 1.7
12 Moritz Wagner ORL 7.8 3.0 1.6
13 Jevon Carter ORL 7.5 2.8 2.8
14 Jericho Sims MIL 7.0 7.2 1.8
15 Jett Howard ORL 5.6 2.5 0.9
16 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.0 3.9 0.8
17 Pete Nance MIL 4.5 2.1 0.7
18 Noah Penda ORL 4.4 3.2 0.9
19 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 3.8 1.1 0.7
20 Jamal Cain ORL 3.0 1.4 0.8
21 Gary Harris MIL 2.3 0.9 0.8
22 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.9 1.0 0.5
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.9 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.