NBA games

WSH @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
118–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH35302825118
NO32353536138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home NO
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tre Johnson S 22 20 4 1
Will Riley 25 19 3 0
Trae Young S 18 17 4 8
Anthony Gill 22 11 2 0
Jaden Hardy 21 10 3 3
Leaky Black S 31 10 4 2
Bub Carrington 23 9 3 4
Alex Sarr S 18 7 4 1
Julian Reese 26 5 9 3
Bilal Coulibaly S 24 5 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 29 24 5 4
Saddiq Bey S 29 23 10 2
Zion Williamson S 23 20 2 1
Dejounte Murray S 24 19 6 2
Jeremiah Fears 24 18 5 7
Derik Queen 25 13 4 5
Karlo Matkovic 4 5 2 0
Bryce McGowens 23 4 1 3
Herbert Jones S 17 4 2 0
Micah Peavy 4 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Saddiq Bey · Layup (2 pts) · 10:55 Q1
"Saddiq Bey makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
15%
2 Dejounte Murray NO
11%
3 Saddiq Bey NO
10%
4 Trae Young WSH
9%
5 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
6 Herbert Jones NO
8%
7 Julian Reese WSH
8%
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
9 Tre Johnson WSH
7%
10 Trey Murphy III NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
28%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trey Murphy III NO 23.9 4.8 5.2
2 Zion Williamson NO 22.8 6.1 4.0
3 Saddiq Bey NO 21.9 5.4 3.6
4 Trae Young WSH 20.9 2.4 9.0
5 Dejounte Murray NO 19.1 5.5 6.7
6 Alex Sarr WSH 18.6 8.3 2.8
7 Jeremiah Fears NO 15.1 4.9 5.2
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 13.8 4.2 2.7
9 Will Riley WSH 13.8 3.7 3.0
10 Justin Champagnie WSH 11.7 5.8 1.4
11 Julian Reese WSH 11.5 10.0 1.9
12 Derik Queen NO 11.4 6.6 2.5
13 Herbert Jones NO 11.2 4.0 3.7
14 Leaky Black WSH 10.9 6.0 1.2
15 Anthony Gill WSH 10.6 4.6 2.7
16 Tre Johnson WSH 10.6 3.4 2.0
17 Jaden Hardy WSH 10.3 2.2 1.2
18 Bryce McGowens NO 10.3 3.2 1.7
19 Bub Carrington WSH 9.8 4.0 4.7
20 Sharife Cooper WSH 9.7 2.7 3.3
21 Jordan Poole NO 8.8 2.9 2.1
22 Karlo Matkovic NO 8.6 5.6 1.6
23 Yves Missi NO 6.3 5.3 1.0
24 DeAndre Jordan NO 5.2 6.4 0.7
25 Kevon Looney NO 3.5 5.6 1.0
26 Micah Peavy NO 2.8 1.2 0.6
27 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.6 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.