NBA games

DAL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
92–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL2915222692
TOR36213134122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home TOR
13% 87%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Daniel Gafford S 23 21 11 3
Cooper Flagg S 30 17 8 6
Brandon Williams 19 16 0 1
P.J. Washington S 31 9 7 3
Naji Marshall 22 8 0 1
Khris Middleton S 19 6 2 1
Marvin Bagley III 20 6 7 2
Klay Thompson 21 5 1 2
Max Christie S 26 2 3 1
Ryan Nembhard 5 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 34 31 6 3
Scottie Barnes S 35 17 4 5
Jakob Poeltl S 30 16 10 4
Sandro Mamukelashvili 18 13 7 3
Brandon Ingram S 31 11 6 6
Ja'Kobe Walter 26 11 3 4
Immanuel Quickley S 31 10 2 8
Gradey Dick 13 10 2 2
Garrett Temple 4 3 1 0
Jamison Battle 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes tip in dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cooper Flagg DAL
10%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
3 Brandon Ingram TOR
9%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
8%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
8%
8 Marvin Bagley III DAL
8%
9 Scottie Barnes TOR
8%
10 Dwight Powell DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
24%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cooper Flagg DAL 25.7 7.9 4.8
2 Immanuel Quickley TOR 21.1 3.2 6.7
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 19.6 4.6 4.0
4 RJ Barrett TOR 19.2 6.0 3.5
5 Naji Marshall DAL 18.9 4.3 4.3
6 Brandon Williams DAL 15.6 4.0 4.6
7 Scottie Barnes TOR 13.5 5.1 3.5
8 Khris Middleton DAL 13.1 4.2 3.6
9 P.J. Washington DAL 12.9 5.5 2.0
10 Max Christie DAL 11.7 3.9 2.0
11 Klay Thompson DAL 10.8 2.1 1.5
12 Marvin Bagley III DAL 10.4 7.8 1.1
13 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.2 6.8 1.9
14 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 8.7 3.7 1.3
15 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.3 6.2 1.2
16 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.1 3.4 1.7
17 Jamal Shead TOR 7.6 2.8 4.2
18 Caleb Martin DAL 6.7 2.7 1.1
19 Ryan Nembhard DAL 5.1 1.7 3.2
20 Dwight Powell DAL 4.8 3.7 0.8
21 AJ Johnson DAL 4.8 1.7 1.2
22 Gradey Dick TOR 4.0 2.1 0.8
23 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 3.4 2.7 0.7
24 Jamison Battle TOR 3.3 1.7 0.7
25 Garrett Temple TOR 1.6 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.