NBA games

DET @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
110–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET16323230110
MIA34333618121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home MIA
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 35 26 1 10
Jalen Duren S 26 24 5 1
Isaiah Stewart 22 14 6 1
Paul Reed 6 10 4 1
Tobias Harris S 24 9 1 0
Javonte Green 15 6 2 1
Ronald Holland II 19 5 7 0
Daniss Jenkins 15 4 4 2
Kevin Huerter 22 4 4 4
Duncan Robinson S 24 3 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 30 25 6 3
Bam Adebayo S 34 24 9 6
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 29 19 6 7
Kel'el Ware 26 12 6 0
Kasparas Jakucionis 22 12 2 0
Pelle Larsson S 33 10 5 5
Davion Mitchell S 24 8 2 4
Dru Smith 22 7 4 4
Myron Gardner S 16 4 6 2
Vladislav Goldin 2 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Layup (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes driving layup (Duncan Robinson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
14%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
4 Norman Powell MIA
8%
5 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
6 Tobias Harris DET
7%
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA
7%
8 Tyler Herro MIA
7%
9 Duncan Robinson DET
6%
10 Daniss Jenkins DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
30%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.4 9.8 3.7
2 Tyler Herro MIA 23.3 4.2 5.2
3 Cade Cunningham DET 23.2 6.3 9.5
4 Jalen Duren DET 17.8 10.7 1.9
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA 17.4 5.9 2.6
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 17.4 4.7 3.9
7 Norman Powell MIA 14.5 2.9 2.1
8 Tobias Harris DET 13.1 7.4 1.9
9 Pelle Larsson MIA 12.6 3.8 3.8
10 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.4 9.6 1.1
11 Duncan Robinson DET 11.3 2.8 2.1
12 Paul Reed DET 10.2 6.1 1.4
13 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.1 3.5 1.4
14 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.4 2.9 4.8
15 Ronald Holland II DET 8.4 4.2 1.4
16 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 8.2 3.1 2.4
17 Daniss Jenkins DET 6.2 1.9 1.8
18 Kevin Huerter DET 6.1 3.4 1.6
19 Simone Fontecchio MIA 5.9 2.2 1.0
20 Javonte Green DET 5.7 3.4 0.8
21 Marcus Sasser DET 4.8 1.4 1.8
22 Myron Gardner MIA 4.6 3.0 1.4
23 Dru Smith MIA 4.2 2.3 1.5
24 Trevor Keels MIA 3.8 1.0 1.0
25 Tolu Smith DET 3.2 3.1 0.5
26 Bobi Klintman DET 3.1 1.9 0.7
27 Chaz Lanier DET 3.1 1.2 0.7
28 Nikola Jovic MIA 3.0 1.6 0.6
29 Vladislav Goldin MIA 2.8 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.