NBA games

NY @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
97–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY2326202897
LAL31233422110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home LAL
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 25 16 2
Jalen Brunson S 42 24 6 7
OG Anunoby S 38 13 8 1
Landry Shamet 27 10 1 2
Jordan Clarkson 10 9 0 1
Josh Hart S 22 8 6 2
Mohamed Diawara 15 4 0 2
Mitchell Robinson 17 4 4 0
Mikal Bridges S 27 0 6 5
Jose Alvarado 7 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 35 8 4
Austin Reaves S 39 25 4 5
Rui Hachimura S 37 13 7 2
Luke Kennard 27 12 2 1
Deandre Ayton S 20 6 8 0
Jake LaRavia 13 6 4 3
Jaxson Hayes 17 5 4 0
Marcus Smart S 29 5 3 4
Jarred Vanderbilt 10 3 2 1
Maxi Kleber 10 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 3"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
4 Luka Doncic LAL
10%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
6 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
7 Jaxson Hayes LAL
9%
8 OG Anunoby NY
7%
9 Josh Hart NY
7%
10 Marcus Smart LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
29%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 26.9 6.7 7.2
2 Jalen Brunson NY 21.0 4.1 7.9
3 Austin Reaves LAL 19.1 4.2 4.0
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 17.9 10.2 2.4
5 OG Anunoby NY 15.1 4.6 2.1
6 Mikal Bridges NY 14.6 3.9 3.4
7 Josh Hart NY 11.4 6.5 5.0
8 Landry Shamet NY 10.8 2.2 1.9
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.6 2.8 1.3
10 Luke Kennard LAL 9.1 2.9 1.7
11 Marcus Smart LAL 9.0 2.6 2.7
12 Deandre Ayton LAL 8.6 6.6 0.9
13 Jaxson Hayes LAL 8.3 4.7 1.3
14 Jose Alvarado NY 7.1 2.4 3.4
15 Jake LaRavia LAL 6.5 2.9 1.3
16 Mohamed Diawara NY 6.2 2.2 1.0
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.0 6.7 0.8
18 Jordan Clarkson NY 5.3 1.6 1.0
19 Drew Timme LAL 4.1 1.6 0.8
20 Tyler Kolek NY 3.9 1.5 2.4
21 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.7 2.9 0.8
22 Kobe Bufkin LAL 3.6 1.5 0.6
23 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.0 1.4 0.7
24 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.9 1.4 0.5
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.8 2.6 0.6
26 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.7 2.1 0.5
27 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.3 1.5 0.6
28 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 1.8 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.