NBA games

BOS @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
109–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS35213023109
CLE2610332998

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home CLE
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 38 23 9 8
Jayson Tatum S 27 20 3 2
Payton Pritchard 35 18 3 7
Baylor Scheierman 26 16 10 0
Sam Hauser S 24 15 4 0
Luka Garza 12 7 1 1
Derrick White S 36 6 7 5
Neemias Queta S 36 4 11 1
Hugo Gonzalez 7 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 33 30 7 5
Evan Mobley S 31 24 8 1
James Harden S 38 19 4 10
Jaylon Tyson 25 8 6 1
Dean Wade S 21 7 3 0
Sam Merrill S 29 5 5 4
Thomas Bryant 14 3 2 0
Dennis Schroder 20 2 3 2
Keon Ellis 24 0 3 0
Craig Porter Jr. 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 1-foot dunk (Sam Merrill assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
3 Neemias Queta BOS
12%
4 Derrick White BOS
11%
5 James Harden CLE
10%
6 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE
9%
8 Sam Hauser BOS
8%
9 Dean Wade CLE
7%
10 Sam Merrill CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
22%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden CLE 21.0 4.8 7.7
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 20.5 7.0 5.9
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 20.2 3.1 4.1
4 Derrick White BOS 18.4 4.7 6.4
5 Evan Mobley CLE 17.6 8.4 2.4
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 17.0 4.0 5.8
7 Dennis Schroder CLE 11.6 2.6 4.5
8 Sam Merrill CLE 10.7 2.5 1.8
9 Jaylon Tyson CLE 10.7 4.1 1.5
10 Neemias Queta BOS 10.4 8.0 1.3
11 Baylor Scheierman BOS 9.9 4.1 2.1
12 Sam Hauser BOS 9.6 3.8 1.7
13 Keon Ellis CLE 6.2 3.1 1.6
14 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.9 4.1 0.9
15 Thomas Bryant CLE 5.5 3.4 0.7
16 Dean Wade CLE 4.9 3.2 1.2
17 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.7 3.4 0.7
18 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.7 2.5 3.2
19 Luka Garza BOS 4.2 2.7 0.7
20 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 4.1 1.9 0.7
21 Riley Minix CLE 3.4 1.4 1.0
22 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.1 1.7 0.4
23 Amari Williams BOS 2.8 2.2 0.6
24 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.4 1.7 0.5
25 Tristan Enaruna CLE 2.0 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.