NBA games

GS @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
97–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS2826291497
OKC34331918104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home OKC
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gui Santos S 37 22 11 3
Brandin Podziemski S 39 17 6 6
Draymond Green S 33 16 4 5
Kristaps Porzingis 23 9 5 5
Pat Spencer S 25 9 1 1
Gary Payton II 22 7 12 1
LJ Cryer 17 6 2 0
Al Horford S 29 4 5 4
Nate Williams 9 4 0 1
Malevy Leons 6 3 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 27 5 5
Isaiah Joe S 35 18 4 3
Kenrich Williams 19 13 7 1
Aaron Wiggins 29 9 4 4
Jared McCain 13 9 2 1
Jaylin Williams S 33 9 14 4
Cason Wallace S 31 9 0 2
Luguentz Dort S 34 8 5 2
Brooks Barnhizer 12 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cason Wallace · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Cason Wallace makes 26-foot three pointer (Jaylin Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Gui Santos GS
13%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
3 De'Anthony Melton GS
13%
4 Luguentz Dort OKC
11%
5 Brandin Podziemski GS
11%
6 Cason Wallace OKC
11%
7 Moses Moody GS
10%
8 Al Horford GS
9%
9 Draymond Green GS
9%
10 Kristaps Porzingis GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
33%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.9 4.9 8.1
2 Brandin Podziemski GS 17.3 7.8 4.6
3 De'Anthony Melton GS 16.0 3.5 2.9
4 Gui Santos GS 15.7 6.7 4.1
5 Moses Moody GS 14.9 4.0 2.4
6 Cason Wallace OKC 13.5 4.1 5.3
7 Kristaps Porzingis GS 13.2 3.7 1.7
8 Isaiah Joe OKC 12.8 3.2 1.8
9 Jared McCain OKC 11.9 3.1 1.6
10 Al Horford GS 11.7 5.5 3.0
11 Jaylin Williams OKC 10.8 6.1 2.8
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.2 3.3 1.8
13 Draymond Green GS 10.0 5.1 4.7
14 Pat Spencer GS 10.0 2.9 5.2
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.3 3.3 2.1
16 Gary Payton II GS 8.8 3.2 1.6
17 Alex Caruso OKC 7.5 2.6 1.7
18 Nate Williams GS 5.9 2.3 1.0
19 Quinten Post GS 5.4 4.1 1.3
20 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.3 2.3 1.0
21 Will Richard GS 5.0 2.3 1.1
22 Nikola Topic OKC 4.8 1.5 2.5
23 LJ Cryer GS 4.2 1.5 1.0
24 Malevy Leons GS 3.1 2.4 0.6
25 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.3 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.