NBA games

UTAH @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
99–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH1331322399
MIL24273230113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home MIL
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 29 22 2 4
Brice Sensabaugh 19 17 5 2
Kyle Filipowski S 34 14 11 6
Cody Williams S 37 13 11 2
Ace Bailey S 29 9 6 3
Blake Hinson 23 8 2 3
Oscar Tshiebwe S 12 6 5 1
Elijah Harkless 16 5 2 2
Kevin Love 14 3 6 0
John Konchar 26 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 27 27 9 8
Kyle Kuzma S 29 18 2 5
Ryan Rollins S 40 13 11 8
Bobby Portis 18 12 4 0
Ousmane Dieng S 32 11 8 9
Myles Turner S 18 8 3 0
AJ Green 21 7 1 1
Jericho Sims 30 6 5 2
Pete Nance 14 5 4 0
Cam Thomas 6 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes 17-foot turnaround jump shot (Ousmane Dieng assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
16%
2 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
12%
3 Keyonte George UTAH
11%
4 Ace Bailey UTAH
11%
5 AJ Green MIL
10%
6 Ryan Rollins MIL
9%
7 John Konchar UTAH
8%
8 Cody Williams UTAH
8%
9 Myles Turner MIL
8%
10 Ousmane Dieng MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
35%
Jumper
19%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 25.7 10.7 5.9
2 Keyonte George UTAH 24.9 3.6 5.0
3 Ryan Rollins MIL 18.7 5.0 5.9
4 Ace Bailey UTAH 16.2 5.4 2.2
5 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 15.9 3.3 2.2
6 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 15.3 8.0 3.3
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL 13.9 4.0 2.7
8 Cam Thomas MIL 12.5 2.7 2.2
9 Bobby Portis MIL 12.2 4.8 1.7
10 Myles Turner MIL 10.6 5.5 1.6
11 Ousmane Dieng MIL 9.6 3.8 1.9
12 AJ Green MIL 8.8 2.4 1.9
13 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.3 2.2 1.4
14 Blake Hinson UTAH 8.0 2.6 0.9
15 Jericho Sims MIL 7.7 7.6 2.0
16 Cody Williams UTAH 7.4 3.4 2.0
17 John Konchar UTAH 5.9 3.7 1.9
18 Kevin Love UTAH 5.1 5.5 1.5
19 Elijah Harkless UTAH 4.8 1.7 2.1
20 Pete Nance MIL 4.7 1.9 0.8
21 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 4.6 1.1 0.8
22 Mo Bamba UTAH 3.8 4.5 0.7
23 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 3.2 3.3 0.7
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.5 1.7 0.8
25 Gary Harris MIL 2.5 1.1 0.9
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.4 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.