NBA games

LAC @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
123–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC23353134123
MEM41183130120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home MEM
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 28 28 5 2
Darius Garland S 26 21 4 6
Bennedict Mathurin 35 21 10 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 30 16 4 1
Jordan Miller 33 14 1 2
Isaiah Jackson 25 12 12 0
Kobe Sanders 19 7 2 0
Brook Lopez S 12 4 1 0
TyTy Washington Jr. 1 0 0 0
Nicolas Batum 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ty Jerome S 25 23 2 7
Taylor Hendricks 26 18 4 2
Cedric Coward 22 15 7 0
GG Jackson S 22 14 7 1
Cam Spencer 16 12 3 4
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 22 11 2 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 23 11 3 3
Jaylen Wells S 26 8 1 1
Jahmai Mashack 25 4 1 0
Walter Clayton Jr. 18 2 2 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick Jones Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Derrick Jones Jr. makes tip in dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
2 GG Jackson MEM
11%
3 Jaylen Wells MEM
11%
4 Ty Jerome MEM
11%
5 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
9%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
7 Brook Lopez LAC
8%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
9 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
7%
10 Javon Small MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
43%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.2 5.8 4.1
2 Darius Garland LAC 21.0 2.8 6.8
3 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 19.4 6.5 3.3
4 GG Jackson MEM 18.5 6.4 2.3
5 Ty Jerome MEM 18.4 3.2 5.0
6 Jaylen Wells MEM 14.7 3.2 1.9
7 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 13.9 4.6 1.8
8 Brook Lopez LAC 13.2 5.1 2.2
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 12.9 3.8 1.7
10 Javon Small MEM 12.7 4.3 3.8
11 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 11.8 2.5 4.8
12 Taylor Hendricks MEM 10.9 4.4 1.5
13 Cedric Coward MEM 10.9 4.3 3.2
14 Kris Dunn LAC 10.6 4.8 5.6
15 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 10.1 2.5 5.8
16 Jordan Miller LAC 10.0 3.1 2.7
17 Jahmai Mashack MEM 9.0 2.7 1.6
18 Cam Spencer MEM 8.9 2.9 4.5
19 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.7 2.7 1.9
20 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 5.5 1.9 1.6
21 Isaiah Jackson LAC 4.5 4.1 0.9
22 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.5 2.5 1.4
23 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 3.7 1.4 1.7
24 Norchad Omier LAC 3.7 2.5 0.6
25 Cam Christie LAC 3.0 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.