NBA games

PHI @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
116–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI38352122116
ATL28383128125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home ATL
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 38 31 2 5
Quentin Grimes S 41 26 6 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 36 24 5 4
Trendon Watford 19 10 2 2
Jabari Walker 17 9 5 1
Cameron Payne 15 6 1 6
Dominick Barlow S 26 4 1 2
Adem Bona S 29 4 7 3
Andre Drummond 19 2 7 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 39 35 10 7
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 36 24 2 6
CJ McCollum S 32 17 3 7
Dyson Daniels S 35 15 9 4
Onyeka Okongwu S 29 10 6 5
Zaccharie Risacher 22 8 4 2
Corey Kispert 14 7 2 0
Jock Landale 19 7 1 0
Mouhamed Gueye 9 2 2 0
Gabe Vincent 4 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
CJ McCollum · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"CJ McCollum makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
15%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
10%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
5 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
6 CJ McCollum ATL
8%
7 Adem Bona PHI
8%
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
9 Trendon Watford PHI
8%
10 Dominick Barlow PHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
40%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.3 4.4 5.5
2 CJ McCollum ATL 21.6 3.9 4.9
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 20.7 4.0 5.6
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 17.2 7.6 3.0
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 15.9 7.6 5.2
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 14.8 4.6 2.5
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.1 7.2 5.4
8 Quentin Grimes PHI 11.0 2.8 2.4
9 Corey Kispert ATL 10.5 3.3 2.3
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.2 4.8 1.4
11 Jock Landale ATL 9.0 3.9 1.5
12 Buddy Hield ATL 7.8 2.2 1.6
13 Dominick Barlow PHI 7.3 3.9 1.0
14 Andre Drummond PHI 6.8 7.2 1.7
15 Adem Bona PHI 6.5 5.2 1.1
16 Trendon Watford PHI 6.4 3.6 2.0
17 Gabe Vincent ATL 5.5 1.7 1.7
18 Cameron Payne PHI 5.1 1.4 1.6
19 Jabari Walker PHI 4.7 2.8 0.7
20 Justin Edwards PHI 4.7 1.4 1.1
21 Tyrese Martin PHI 4.6 1.9 1.0
22 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.5 3.7 0.8
23 Christian Koloko ATL 4.3 3.7 0.7
24 Dalen Terry PHI 4.2 2.1 1.5
25 Caleb Houstan ATL 3.4 1.4 0.7
26 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.9 1.2 1.0
27 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.7 1.2 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.