NBA games

BKN @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
107–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN19272734107
DET32302221105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home DET
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 39 30 13 1
Ziaire Williams 32 23 4 0
Noah Clowney S 31 16 3 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 21 13 7 4
Danny Wolf 19 8 3 4
Terance Mann S 29 7 4 2
Ochai Agbaji 21 6 4 0
Nic Claxton S 28 2 6 4
Nolan Traore S 15 2 1 2
Ben Saraf 4 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 34 18 10 0
Jalen Duren S 32 17 14 2
Duncan Robinson S 23 15 0 4
Daniss Jenkins S 35 11 1 9
Isaiah Stewart 20 10 4 0
Kevin Huerter 15 8 0 1
Marcus Sasser S 29 8 3 4
Caris LeVert 16 7 2 1
Ronald Holland II 18 6 0 0
Javonte Green 18 5 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · Layup (2 pts) · 10:30 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
18%
2 Nic Claxton BKN
16%
3 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
14%
4 Tobias Harris DET
11%
5 Nolan Traore BKN
11%
6 Duncan Robinson DET
10%
7 Noah Clowney BKN
10%
8 Terance Mann BKN
9%
9 Josh Minott BKN
0%
10 Grant Nelson BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
29%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
22%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 21.0 5.9 3.4
2 Jalen Duren DET 17.5 10.5 2.0
3 Nolan Traore BKN 14.3 2.8 5.0
4 Nic Claxton BKN 14.2 6.4 3.4
5 Tobias Harris DET 13.0 6.9 2.1
6 Duncan Robinson DET 12.0 3.2 2.4
7 Noah Clowney BKN 11.9 3.9 1.5
8 Paul Reed DET 10.6 6.2 1.4
9 Danny Wolf BKN 10.5 4.6 3.0
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.0 3.6 1.6
11 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 9.6 6.8 2.7
12 Ronald Holland II DET 9.3 5.3 1.5
13 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.2 2.4 1.9
14 Terance Mann BKN 7.3 2.7 2.1
15 Ben Saraf BKN 6.7 1.8 3.0
16 Caris LeVert DET 6.5 2.3 2.0
17 Kevin Huerter DET 6.1 3.5 1.7
18 Daniss Jenkins DET 6.0 2.0 1.3
19 Javonte Green DET 5.7 3.1 0.9
20 Marcus Sasser DET 4.9 1.4 1.6
21 Ochai Agbaji BKN 4.8 2.0 1.0
22 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.5 2.1 0.7
23 Grant Nelson BKN 4.0 2.3 1.1
24 Tolu Smith DET 3.7 3.1 0.6
25 Bobi Klintman DET 3.4 2.1 0.8
26 Josh Minott BKN 3.3 1.5 0.7
27 Chaz Lanier DET 3.3 1.4 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.