NBA games

ORL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
119–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL27333029119
MIN3020281492

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home MIN
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 33 30 3 4
Paolo Banchero S 35 25 15 3
Jalen Suggs S 29 14 4 4
Tristan da Silva 31 11 7 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 25 10 6 3
Jett Howard 25 9 3 0
Moritz Wagner 19 7 7 3
Jevon Carter 19 6 2 4
Goga Bitadze 4 4 4 1
Jamal Cain 4 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 32 34 3 2
Julius Randle S 26 14 9 1
Naz Reid 26 13 8 1
Rudy Gobert S 33 12 8 0
Bones Hyland 23 9 1 4
Jaden McDaniels S 29 3 4 2
Ayo Dosunmu 21 3 2 2
Rocco Zikarsky 5 2 0 0
Julian Phillips 5 2 0 0
Jaylen Clark 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes 1-foot dunk (Jalen Suggs assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
13%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
4 Anthony Black ORL
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
8 Desmond Bane ORL
9%
9 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
32%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane ORL 24.5 4.2 3.7
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.1 4.8 3.5
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.1 8.2 5.8
4 Julius Randle MIN 20.5 7.2 5.1
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.4 5.4 3.0
6 Anthony Black ORL 15.3 3.6 3.3
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.2 11.6 2.2
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.2 4.1 5.8
9 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 12.2 2.7 2.6
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.1 3.6 4.4
11 Naz Reid MIN 10.6 6.1 1.9
12 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.4 8.2 1.8
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 10.1 4.6 1.7
14 Moritz Wagner ORL 7.8 2.6 1.2
15 Jevon Carter ORL 7.5 2.9 2.3
16 Bones Hyland MIN 6.0 1.6 2.0
17 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.6 4.5 0.7
18 Noah Penda ORL 4.5 2.7 0.9
19 Jett Howard ORL 4.3 1.7 0.9
20 Rocco Zikarsky MIN 3.8 2.4 0.5
21 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.7 1.7 0.6
22 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.7 1.1 0.6
23 Julian Phillips MIN 3.3 1.2 0.5
24 Jamal Cain ORL 2.9 1.1 0.6
25 Jase Richardson ORL 2.6 1.1 0.9
26 Mike Conley MIN 2.4 1.5 1.6
27 Joe Ingles MIN 1.2 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.