NBA games

IND @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
117–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND27242937117
LAL35293529128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home LAL
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 29 26 5 3
Andrew Nembhard S 31 17 2 8
Jay Huff S 33 16 6 2
Jarace Walker S 27 10 9 5
T.J. McConnell 18 10 1 4
Quenton Jackson 18 8 1 2
Kobe Brown 10 8 1 0
Micah Potter 14 8 6 3
Aaron Nesmith S 23 7 3 1
Ben Sheppard 26 5 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 32 44 9 5
Austin Reaves S 29 19 2 5
Luke Kennard 27 15 7 3
Rui Hachimura S 23 13 3 1
Marcus Smart S 29 11 3 3
Jaxson Hayes S 25 9 4 2
Jake LaRavia 16 8 2 0
Drew Timme 23 4 2 1
Dalton Knecht 4 3 1 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 21 2 8 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jay Huff · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Jay Huff makes 29-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
14%
2 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
3 Andrew Nembhard IND
12%
4 Jarace Walker IND
11%
5 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
6 Jay Huff IND
11%
7 Marcus Smart LAL
9%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
9 Kam Jones IND
9%
10 Micah Potter IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
28%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 26.8 6.4 8.1
2 Pascal Siakam IND 21.8 4.9 3.3
3 Austin Reaves LAL 20.7 4.5 4.8
4 Andrew Nembhard IND 18.1 3.2 6.6
5 Jarace Walker IND 18.0 7.5 4.2
6 Micah Potter IND 14.2 5.7 2.1
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.8 3.5 2.2
8 Quenton Jackson IND 12.4 3.1 2.8
9 Jay Huff IND 12.3 4.3 1.9
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.8 2.9 1.5
11 Marcus Smart LAL 10.4 2.8 3.1
12 Luke Kennard LAL 10.2 2.7 2.2
13 Kobe Brown IND 10.0 4.7 1.6
14 Ben Sheppard IND 9.9 3.3 2.1
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 8.9 5.4 1.4
16 T.J. McConnell IND 8.2 2.1 4.3
17 Kam Jones IND 8.1 2.0 3.5
18 Jake LaRavia LAL 7.3 3.1 1.6
19 Obi Toppin IND 7.1 3.6 2.1
20 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.7 3.2 0.9
21 Kobe Bufkin LAL 3.6 1.3 0.7
22 Drew Timme LAL 3.3 1.3 0.8
23 Bronny James LAL 3.2 0.9 1.1
24 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.7 1.4 0.5
25 Adou Thiero LAL 2.3 1.9 0.5
26 Chris Manon LAL 1.7 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.