NBA games

LAC @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
112–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC32342620112
SA25213535116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home SA
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 37 30 9 3
Brook Lopez S 34 26 6 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 34 12 3 2
Jordan Miller 25 11 2 6
Kobe Sanders S 25 10 4 1
Bennedict Mathurin 22 8 3 1
Nicolas Batum 17 6 2 1
Isaiah Jackson 14 5 5 1
Kris Dunn S 31 4 7 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 22 27 10 1
Julian Champagnie S 29 20 9 1
De'Aaron Fox S 30 19 2 9
Devin Vassell S 35 11 4 3
Luke Kornet 24 10 7 2
Keldon Johnson 22 10 6 0
Dylan Harper 20 8 2 4
Stephon Castle S 34 6 8 8
Carter Bryant 21 5 3 1
Lindy Waters III 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick Jones Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Derrick Jones Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
13%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
4 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
10%
5 Devin Vassell SA
9%
6 De'Aaron Fox SA
9%
7 Kris Dunn LAC
9%
8 Brook Lopez LAC
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
10 Kobe Sanders LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
22%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.0 10.4 3.9
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 22.6 6.0 3.6
3 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 20.5 6.3 3.4
4 Devin Vassell SA 15.0 4.1 2.7
5 Stephon Castle SA 14.4 4.0 6.0
6 Dylan Harper SA 13.5 3.6 4.4
7 De'Aaron Fox SA 13.1 3.3 4.4
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 11.6 3.8 1.5
9 Brook Lopez LAC 11.0 4.6 1.7
10 Kris Dunn LAC 10.3 4.6 5.1
11 Julian Champagnie SA 9.8 4.3 1.7
12 Keldon Johnson SA 9.3 3.7 1.2
13 Jordan Miller LAC 9.2 2.9 2.4
14 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.0 2.4 1.7
15 Carter Bryant SA 5.5 3.5 1.1
16 Luke Kornet SA 4.9 4.3 1.1
17 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 4.9 1.9 1.5
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.9 2.3 1.1
19 Isaiah Jackson LAC 3.8 3.9 0.8
20 Norchad Omier LAC 3.6 2.5 0.4
21 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 3.5 1.4 1.5
22 Lindy Waters III SA 3.3 1.1 0.6
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.2 1.4 0.8
24 Cam Christie LAC 2.9 1.5 0.6
25 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.7 1.3 0.7
26 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.3 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.