NBA games

NO @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
116–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO29232935116
PHX26323426118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home PHX
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 41 22 2 4
Saddiq Bey S 34 19 6 0
Zion Williamson S 34 19 10 3
Dejounte Murray S 30 15 8 5
Herbert Jones S 31 14 2 4
Karlo Matkovic 13 9 3 0
Jeremiah Fears 15 8 0 1
Derik Queen 13 4 1 1
Yves Missi 16 4 8 0
Bryce McGowens 13 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 35 32 4 4
Jalen Green S 31 25 5 3
Oso Ighodaro S 27 13 6 1
Collin Gillespie S 32 12 6 6
Grayson Allen 29 12 2 8
Royce O'Neale S 31 11 6 3
Rasheer Fleming 14 6 5 0
Khaman Maluach 20 4 4 1
Ryan Dunn 13 3 1 1
Amir Coffey 7 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jalen Green makes driving layup (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Royce O'Neale PHX
16%
2 Zion Williamson NO
11%
3 Dejounte Murray NO
10%
4 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
5 Devin Booker PHX
9%
6 Oso Ighodaro PHX
8%
7 Herbert Jones NO
8%
8 Saddiq Bey NO
8%
9 Yves Missi NO
8%
10 Jalen Green PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
66%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
13%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 22.9 5.3 3.6
2 Grayson Allen PHX 22.0 3.6 5.4
3 Trey Murphy III NO 21.4 4.6 4.6
4 Saddiq Bey NO 21.0 4.9 3.3
5 Dejounte Murray NO 20.1 5.0 6.3
6 Devin Booker PHX 18.1 3.7 4.1
7 Jeremiah Fears NO 15.7 5.1 4.6
8 Jalen Green PHX 15.3 3.9 2.8
9 Collin Gillespie PHX 13.6 3.8 5.1
10 Derik Queen NO 10.7 7.0 2.2
11 Bryce McGowens NO 10.3 3.0 1.6
12 Oso Ighodaro PHX 10.3 6.7 3.1
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.9 5.1 2.1
14 Herbert Jones NO 9.8 3.8 3.6
15 Jordan Poole NO 8.2 2.9 2.0
16 Karlo Matkovic NO 7.1 5.3 1.3
17 Amir Coffey PHX 7.0 2.9 1.5
18 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.8 4.7 1.3
19 Yves Missi NO 5.6 4.6 0.9
20 Rasheer Fleming PHX 5.5 2.7 0.9
21 DeAndre Jordan NO 5.3 6.4 0.7
22 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.8 1.7 1.5
23 Khaman Maluach PHX 3.7 3.0 0.7
24 Kevon Looney NO 2.9 5.4 0.8
25 Micah Peavy NO 2.5 1.2 0.5
26 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.3 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.