NBA games

NY @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
142–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY27384037142
DEN29232823103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home DEN
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 32 34 7 5
Josh Hart S 25 18 5 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 27 17 13 2
Mitchell Robinson 14 13 5 1
Pacome Dadiet 9 11 2 0
Landry Shamet 19 10 3 0
Jalen Brunson S 34 9 3 15
Mikal Bridges S 25 9 2 4
Jordan Clarkson 7 7 3 0
Jose Alvarado 11 4 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 31 38 8 5
Jamal Murray S 18 12 1 3
DaRon Holmes II 8 11 1 0
Cameron Johnson S 22 10 3 5
Christian Braun S 31 7 4 5
Bruce Brown 22 7 2 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 23 6 1 1
Aaron Gordon S 21 3 3 3
Tyus Jones 12 3 1 1
Spencer Jones 10 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:00 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Christian Braun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Christian Braun DEN
10%
2 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
4 Jalen Brunson NY
9%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
6 OG Anunoby NY
9%
7 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
8 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
9 Julian Strawther DEN
7%
10 Cameron Johnson DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
27%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 26.8 12.2 8.9
2 Jalen Brunson NY 21.5 3.8 6.6
3 Jamal Murray DEN 21.3 4.0 5.2
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 18.0 9.3 2.4
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.9 6.1 3.8
6 Mikal Bridges NY 16.5 4.1 3.4
7 Christian Braun DEN 15.0 5.8 3.3
8 OG Anunoby NY 14.9 4.4 1.9
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 11.7 2.9 1.4
10 Landry Shamet NY 11.6 2.2 1.9
11 Josh Hart NY 11.5 7.0 5.8
12 Julian Strawther DEN 11.3 2.9 1.6
13 Cameron Johnson DEN 9.3 3.5 1.7
14 Bruce Brown DEN 9.0 3.5 2.2
15 Jose Alvarado NY 7.1 2.5 3.8
16 Mohamed Diawara NY 6.6 2.3 1.0
17 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 6.3 4.3 0.9
18 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.6 6.6 0.8
19 Spencer Jones DEN 4.9 3.1 0.7
20 Tyus Jones DEN 4.7 1.3 2.5
21 Jordan Clarkson NY 3.6 1.0 0.8
22 Tyler Kolek NY 3.6 1.2 2.0
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.0 1.2 0.8
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.0 3.1 0.6
25 DaRon Holmes II DEN 2.9 1.1 0.4
26 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.8 2.2 0.5
27 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.3 1.5 0.6
28 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 2.3 1.1 0.8
29 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.3 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.