NBA games

POR @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
99–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR3422261799
HOU27302029106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home HOU
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 38 21 2 2
Jrue Holiday S 37 20 4 10
Donovan Clingan S 25 18 13 0
Toumani Camara S 39 16 6 2
Robert Williams III 23 8 8 0
Blake Wesley 13 7 0 1
Matisse Thybulle 12 5 1 1
Scoot Henderson S 20 4 2 2
Vit Krejci 20 0 6 2
Sidy Cissoko 12 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 26 28 6 2
Amen Thompson S 39 26 7 7
Kevin Durant S 39 20 8 5
Reed Sheppard S 36 17 3 6
Tari Eason S 25 5 5 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 25 5 5 2
Aaron Holiday 12 3 3 0
Clint Capela 22 2 6 0
Josh Okogie 15 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 7-foot fade away jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
3 Jerami Grant POR
9%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
9%
5 Donovan Clingan POR
9%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
7 Tari Eason HOU
8%
8 Deni Avdija POR
7%
9 Shaedon Sharpe POR
7%
10 Scoot Henderson POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
25%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 24.8 5.7 4.6
2 Jrue Holiday POR 22.6 4.9 5.9
3 Reed Sheppard HOU 19.8 4.4 5.2
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.6 3.7 3.0
5 Alperen Sengun HOU 17.9 7.5 5.7
6 Amen Thompson HOU 17.1 8.2 4.7
7 Jerami Grant POR 17.0 4.1 2.2
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.5 7.2 1.8
9 Donovan Clingan POR 15.2 10.7 3.0
10 Scoot Henderson POR 13.6 3.1 4.0
11 Deni Avdija POR 13.2 4.8 4.1
12 Toumani Camara POR 12.9 5.0 2.6
13 Tari Eason HOU 10.8 6.2 2.6
14 Robert Williams III POR 8.7 7.4 1.3
15 Vit Krejci POR 8.1 2.9 1.6
16 Kris Murray POR 6.0 2.7 1.0
17 Blake Wesley POR 5.3 1.4 1.7
18 Josh Okogie HOU 5.1 2.1 0.8
19 Sidy Cissoko POR 4.9 3.0 1.4
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.8 2.1 0.8
21 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.4 2.4 0.9
22 Clint Capela HOU 4.1 4.4 0.8
23 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.5 1.0 0.7
24 Isaiah Crawford HOU 2.9 1.6 0.6
25 Jeff Green HOU 2.7 1.0 0.5
26 Chris Youngblood POR 2.1 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.