NBA games

MIA @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
128–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA30284030128
CHA27344019120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CHA
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 37 33 9 9
Bam Adebayo S 39 24 12 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 31 21 2 4
Davion Mitchell S 27 13 2 7
Pelle Larsson S 29 11 4 2
Kel'el Ware 31 10 4 0
Kasparas Jakucionis 13 6 2 2
Myron Gardner S 16 6 5 2
Dru Smith 18 4 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kon Knueppel S 34 27 2 4
Brandon Miller S 34 22 13 5
LaMelo Ball S 33 21 2 5
Coby White 17 13 5 3
Miles Bridges S 28 12 2 1
Grant Williams 19 12 6 4
Moussa Diabate S 31 6 14 1
Sion James 14 3 0 0
Ryan Kalkbrenner 17 2 3 0
Josh Green 14 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kon Knueppel · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Kon Knueppel makes 23-foot running jump shot (Miles Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
16%
2 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
4 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
5 Norman Powell MIA
9%
6 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
7 Miles Bridges CHA
8%
8 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
9 Andrew Wiggins MIA
8%
10 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
24%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 23.1 5.4 4.2
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.2 9.4 3.6
3 Tyler Herro MIA 22.1 3.5 4.3
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 20.1 4.8 6.5
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 19.8 4.9 3.3
6 Coby White CHA 17.4 3.7 5.1
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA 17.1 5.8 2.5
8 Norman Powell MIA 14.7 3.0 2.0
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 14.7 4.9 3.9
10 Miles Bridges CHA 13.7 4.9 3.1
11 Pelle Larsson MIA 12.8 3.9 3.9
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.8 9.4 0.9
13 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.8 9.5 3.1
14 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.2 2.9 4.3
15 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 8.8 3.0 2.5
16 Grant Williams CHA 8.4 4.0 2.3
17 Josh Green CHA 6.8 2.7 1.1
18 Simone Fontecchio MIA 6.6 2.3 1.1
19 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 6.3 5.9 1.3
20 Sion James CHA 6.3 3.5 2.1
21 Myron Gardner MIA 4.6 3.0 1.2
22 Dru Smith MIA 4.1 2.0 1.5
23 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.9 2.1 0.9
24 Tre Mann CHA 3.9 1.8 1.1
25 Trevor Keels MIA 3.7 1.0 0.9
26 Nikola Jovic MIA 2.9 1.5 0.5
27 Vladislav Goldin MIA 2.6 1.6 0.5
28 Xavier Tillman CHA 2.4 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.