NBA games

DAL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
100–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL22312720100
BOS21373230120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home BOS
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson 18 19 0 1
Cooper Flagg S 30 16 8 6
Naji Marshall 25 13 1 3
Max Christie S 29 12 4 2
Brandon Williams 19 11 7 4
Khris Middleton S 24 7 5 3
Moussa Cisse 26 6 7 1
Ryan Nembhard 4 5 0 0
P.J. Washington S 29 5 5 3
Caleb Martin 16 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 33 24 7 7
Derrick White S 31 20 4 4
Payton Pritchard 34 18 7 6
Neemias Queta S 26 16 15 0
Jayson Tatum S 27 15 12 7
Luka Garza 18 10 3 1
Sam Hauser S 23 6 5 0
Hugo Gonzalez 19 6 2 2
Baylor Scheierman 21 5 2 2
Nikola Vucevic 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Neemias Queta · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:07 Q1
"Neemias Queta makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
2 Cooper Flagg DAL
11%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
4 Brandon Williams DAL
11%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
11%
6 Derrick White BOS
10%
7 Sam Hauser BOS
10%
8 Max Christie DAL
9%
9 Baylor Scheierman BOS
7%
10 Khris Middleton DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
21%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cooper Flagg DAL 26.2 7.3 4.3
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.4 7.2 5.8
3 Derrick White BOS 19.2 4.4 6.6
4 Naji Marshall DAL 19.2 4.4 4.2
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.5 3.7 6.1
6 Brandon Williams DAL 16.2 3.7 4.6
7 P.J. Washington DAL 14.1 5.6 2.0
8 Khris Middleton DAL 13.8 3.9 3.5
9 Nikola Vucevic BOS 12.1 7.1 2.0
10 Max Christie DAL 11.9 3.7 2.0
11 Baylor Scheierman BOS 11.1 5.4 2.5
12 Sam Hauser BOS 10.5 3.8 2.0
13 Neemias Queta BOS 9.9 8.0 1.4
14 Klay Thompson DAL 9.7 2.0 1.4
15 Caleb Martin DAL 7.3 2.6 1.2
16 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 6.4 4.3 0.9
17 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.9 3.8 0.9
18 AJ Johnson DAL 5.4 1.4 1.6
19 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 5.3 2.7 1.0
20 Ryan Nembhard DAL 5.3 1.6 3.4
21 Dwight Powell DAL 4.4 3.2 0.7
22 Luka Garza BOS 4.3 2.7 0.8
23 Moussa Cisse DAL 3.9 5.3 0.4
24 Amari Williams BOS 2.9 2.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.